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PrintThere are only a couple weeks left in college basketball’s regular season, so it’s time for one final check-up on the head-to-head challenge between BTB and Caesars Palace on over/under conference win totals.
In case you’re not familiar, the friendly bet went like this: After Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sportsbook analyst for Caesars Entertainment, set win totals for 24 college hoops teams back in November, I called the numbers soft, so a friendly wager was placed.
Listed below are the 10 picks I settled on. Two of them — the unders on both Connecticut and Xavier — have already cashed. Another, Kansas to finish 12-6 or better, is looking like a sure win, while two others — Michigan State’s under and UCLA’s over — will probably end up losing.
But that leaves five bets that are still very much up in the air, and this bet is looking like it’ll have an exciting finish.
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ARIZONA | UNDER 13 (-125)
Current record: 9-4 (T-third)
Games left: 5
Outlook: This one looked like a sure win back in January, but Sean Miller is a wizard at the end of the season and he’s making it interesting. Back-to-back road wins at Stanford and Cal were unexpected. Road trips to Washington State (Thursday) and Washington (Saturday) are really the only possible losses left, so this bet will likely be decided over the weekend.
Prediction: PUSH
I wish I was counting on someone other than Baylor coach Scott Drew to finish 4-1 or better down the stretch.
BAYLOR | OVER 12 (-125)
Current record: 9-4 (third)
Games left: 5
Outlook: The Bears went 0-4 against the Big 12′s top two teams — Kansas and Missouri — but those are their only four losses this entire season. Road trips to Texas and Iowa State are the toughest games remaining, but Baylor should be able to finish 4-1, and a push seems like a worst-case scenario.
Prediction: WIN
CONNECTICUT | UNDER 13 (-105)
Current record: 6-7 (T-ninth)
Games left: 5
Outlook: Back in January, I said, “If this bet loses, I’ll eat my own shoe.” Well, it looks like my shoe (not to mention my taste buds) is safe. This one was locked up when the Huskies lost at Louisville on Feb. 6, and now the defending national champs just have to worry about securing an NCAA Tournament berth in the absence of coach Jim Calhoun.
Prediction: WIN
HARVARD | UNDER 12.5 (+130)
Current record: 7-1 (first)
Games left: 6
Outlook: The Crimson will almost surely win the Ivy League and earn a decent seed in the NCAA Tournament, but is there one last possible slip-up down the stretch? Here’s the hope: Harvard locks up the league title before its March road trips to Columbia and Cornell and then gets a bit complacent to close the regular season. Hey, it’s not likely, but it’s certainly possible.
Prediction: UNCERTAIN
KANSAS | OVER 12 (even)
Current record: 11-2
Games left: 5
Outlook: Easiest bet on the board. Banking on the seven-time Big 12 champs to finish no worse than 12-6 in a league they absolutely own? Easy money. The Jayhawks will be favored by at least 20 points on Saturday against Texas Tech, and then they’ll lock up their 13th win next week at Texas A&M.
Prediction: WIN
Will Barton and Memphis need to have just one more off game for the under to cash.
MEMPHIS | UNDER 13.5 (even)
Current record: 9-2 (T-first)
Games left: 5
Outlook: This one has the exact same feel as the Harvard under, with the Tigers needing to run the table in a weak conference down the stretch for the bet to lose. Trips to Marshall (Feb. 25) and Tulsa (March 3) are really the only possible losses left on the schedule, and Memphis can’t exactly afford a slip-up if it hopes to feel safe as an at-large on Selection Sunday.
Prediction: UNCERTAIN
MICHIGAN STATE | UNDER 11.5 (-115)
Current record: 9-3 (second)
Games left: 6
Outlook: Please, someone, take off my shoe and smack me in the face with it. I deserve it. The Spartans are much like Kansas in that they have such a good coach (BTB favorite Tom Izzo) you’d have to be crazy to go against them. A 2-4 finish and this bet winning seems about as likely as Floyd Mayweather losing a bet at the M.
Prediction: LOSS
TEXAS | UNDER 11 (-130)
Current record: 7-6 (fifth)
Games left: 5
Outlook: The Longhorns are starting to make a push, winning four in a row, but their best conference win so far is probably at home against either Iowa State or Kansas State. The six freshmen are really growing, but Texas has essentially a sure loss with Kansas looming in March on a trip to Allen Fieldhouse, making 11 wins the best-case scenario. Other than that, the Longhorns could also drop games against either Baylor or at Oklahoma State.
Prediction: WIN
Thanks for nothing, UCLA.
UCLA | OVER 11.5 (-125)
Current record: 8-6 (sixth)
Games left: 4
Outlook: I wish I could secretly delete this bet from the list. What an embarassment. The Bruins got a home win against rival USC on Wednesday night to move to 8-6. Whoop-de-doo. A 4-0 finish is needed for this bet to win, and that seems virtually impossible with games remaining against Arizona and Washington.
Prediction: LOSS
XAVIER | UNDER 13.5 (+115)
Current record: 7-4 (T-third)
Games left: 5
Outlook: Much like UConn, this under was locked up awhile back, when the Musketeers lost to Saint Louis on Jan. 25. Forget an Atlantic 10 championship, Xavier simply needs to worry about stringing together some wins to earn an NCAA Tournament berth. If the Musketeers get in, you know they’ll be a tough out.
Prediction: WIN
