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PrintWe’re three weeks through the college football season, and only five BCS teams still have perfect 3-0 against-the-spread records, including Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Northwestern, Purdue and UCLA.
But which of these teams will have the best value going forward? Let’s take a look.
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GEORGIA TECH
Avg. ATS win: 13.7
This week: -13.5 vs. Miami
Outlook: Georgia Tech is off to the same start it had last year, when it ripped off four straight ATS wins—all by at least a touchdown—before falling apart and finishing the year with a losing against-the-spread record. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 56-20 win against Virginia as 10-point favorites, and we felt like the line this week against the Hurricanes should have been more than two TD’s. Paul Johnson’s offense is as good as it’s been since he arrived in Atlanta five years ago.
Buy or sell? Buy.
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TEXAS TECH
Avg. ATS win: 18.2
This week: Bye.
Outlook: Three games against pud competition (Northwestern State, Texas State and New Mexico) has kept the Red Raiders off the radar, so we still don’t know how good they actually are. We thought they were a fringe bowl team in the preseason and nothing we’ve seen to this point has made us feel any differently. Texas Tech will be a small road underdog against Iowa State on Sept. 29, and we’ll lean toward the home team in that matchup. Tommy Tuberville is 8-3 ATS in non-con play since arriving at Texas Tech but is just 6-10-1 in conference play.
Buy or sell? Sell.
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NORTHWESTERN
Avg. ATS win: 7
This week: vs. South Dakota NL
Outlook: Northwestern is the only team in the country with three straight up and ATS wins against BCS competition. The Wildcats defeated Syracuse on the road in the season opener before posting back-to-back home victories against Vanderbilt and Boston College. The defense was atrocious against the Orange, allowing 41 points and more than 500 passing yards. But the Wildcats have settled down in the last two games, allowing a combined 26 points and winning both games by double digits. This remains a “play on” team, and if you look at the schedule, you’ll notice that a 7-0 start is possible.
Buy or sell? Buy.
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PURDUE
Avg. ATS win: 15.7
This week: Bye.
Outlook: Two wins against directional schools—Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Michigan—won’t win you any respect, but the narrow 20-17 loss at Notre Dame certainly raised some eyebrows. In the offseason, we thought Purdue had the potential to be a surprise team in the Big Ten and possibly even push Wisconsin for a Leaders Division title. Still, we’re taking a wait-and-see approach with the defense, which we think will get carved up in conference play. Purdue is a “play on” team for one more week (against Marshall), but we’ll look to fade ‘em against Big Ten opponents.
Buy or sell? Sell.
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UCLA
Avg. ATS win: 10.5
This week: -11.5 vs. Oregon State
Outlook: There isn’t a team in the country that has exceeded expectations to the extent that the Bruins have. UCLA has three impressive wins on its resume, including a 36-30 victory over then-No. 16 Nebraska. However, because the Bruins are a high-profile team based in Los Angeles, they’re on everyone’s radar—and the line has been adjusted accordingly. This week, UCLA is a double-digit favorite against a solid Oregon State team, and we think the line is inflated by about a field goal. We’ll look to play against UCLA in the foreseeable future and take the line value being offered on the opponent.
Buy or sell? Sell.
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NOTE: All ATS margin of victory stats courtesy of Team Rankings.
