BTBN

10:00 am – October 2, 2012

Thanks for the feedback on BTBN, which we’ve tested out as a feature for the last month. We’ll continue to operate the news feed going forward, but in a different location and in a slightly modified form.

We’ll let you know when it returns.

5:00 pm – October 1, 2012

College football power ratings: Below you’ll find a list of the top team in each conference. For a more complete breakdown of the ratings, click here.

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4:45 pm – October 1, 2012

BCS Championship favorite Alabama will have to finish the season without starting wide receiver DeAndrew White and running back Dee Hart. Both players were injured in the Crimson Tide’s win over Mississippi and will have to undergo season-ending surgeries.

Alabama has a bye week before taking on Missouri Saturday, Oct. 13.

4:00 pm – October 1, 2012

Chicago running back Matt Forte’s status is uncertain for tonight’s Monday night game against Dallas. Head coach Lovie Smith told the media this morning that whether or not Forte plays will be a game-time decision.

The Bears are currently 3-point road underdogs.

3:15 pm – October 1, 2012

USA Today Top 10, with corresponding futures odds at TheGreek:

1. Alabama (+125)
2. Oregon (+850)
3. LSU (+500)
4. Florida State (+500)
5. Georgia (+1200)
6. South Carolina (+1800)
7. West Virginia (+2000)
8. Kansas State (+3000)
9. Texas (+2000)
10. Notre Dame (+1850)

2:30 pm – October 1, 2012

Before the season even started, bettors could have had the Orioles at 225-to-1 to win the World Series, which was the second-worst odds of any team in baseball. Now, after clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 1997, their odds are just 14-to-1.

For a complete breakdown of month-by-month World Series odds, click here.

1:45 pm – October 1, 2012

Thirteen of 23 home underdogs have won outright in the NFL, including one of four in Week 4. Based on the early lines at 5Dimes, five more teams–Chiefs, Colts, Jets, Rams and Redskins–will have a chance to improve the record in Week 5.

* * *

Week 5 Home Underdogs (odds courtesy of 5Dimes)

Arizona
St. Louis +2

Atlanta
Washington +3

Green Bay
Indianapolis +6.5

Baltimore
Kansas City +4.5

Houston
New York +7.5

1:00 pm – October 1, 2012

The Houston Texans are the only team in the NFL with a perfect record against the spread. The Texans are 4-0 through four weeks and are currently 7.5-point favorites in their Monday Night matchup against the Jets.

* * *

NFL’s Top 10 ATS

Houston 4-0
Arizona 3-1
Atlanta 3-1
San Diego 3-1
San Francisco 3-1
New England 3-1
St. Louis 3-1
Tampa Bay 3-1
Chicago 2-1
Cincinnati 2-1-1

11:30 am – October 1, 2012

Tiger Woods missed a 3-foot putt on the 18th green and conceded the hole to Francesco Molinari, which resulted in a draw for the match and a European Ryder Cup victory.

The missed putt was irrelevant because the Ryder Cup had already been decided, but it was a big deal for bookmakers.

According to the U.K. Daily Mail, Woods’ miss cost European bookmakers millions of dollars.

The gesture handed Europe an outright win that few would have predicted at the start of the day, leaving the European fans cheering – and the bookies fuming after they saw a flurry of bets placed from the optimistic few who did fancy the unlikely result.
“No one bets on a tie,” a Ladbrokes spokesman told the Daily Mail. “It cost us just over £650,000 last night on Tiger’s miss. Tiger is not a bookie’s friend this morning.”

* * *

Sportsbook losses, according to the Daily Mail:

Paddy Power: £750,000
Ladbrokes: £650,000
Sky Bet: £500,000
William Hill: £500,000
Betfred: £400,000
Coral: £400,000

10:45 am – October 1, 2012

The LVH SuperContest consensus plays went a perfect 5-0 ATS Sunday, with the Patriots, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals and Rams all covering the spread.

Overall, the Top 5 consensus plays are 11-8-1 through the first four weeks.

10:00 am – October 1, 2012

Updated NFL Conference odds from the Las Vegas Hilton:

2013 NFC

49ers +300
Falcons +350
Packers +400
Giants +900
Eagles +1000
Cowboys +1200
Bears +1200
Cardinals +1200
Vikings +2500
Seahawks +3000
Redskins +4000
Lions +5000
Saints +5000
Panthers +6000
Buccaneers +10000
Rams +10000

2013 AFC

Texans +140
Patriots +275
Ravens +450
Broncos +1000
Chargers +1000
Steelers +1200
Bengals +2500
Jets +5000
Bills +5000
Chiefs +10000
Raiders +10000
Titans +10000
Colts +15000
Dolphins +15000
Jaguars +25000
Browns +50000

5:00 pm – September 28, 2012

The BYU-Hawaii point spread opened with the Cougars favored by 27.5, but with the uncertainty as to whether or not Riley Nelson will start at quarterback, the line has since dropped to BYU -25.5. The total has also lowered from 53.5 to 49.5 at most books, including the Las Vegas Hilton.

4:15 pm – September 28, 2012

Because of the way the Packers-Seahawks game ended in Week 3, William Hill is now offering ‘no juice’ on all bets placed on Green Bay against New Orleans.

Jimmy Vaccaro, Director of Public Relations for William Hill US, said “Packers bettors got a bad beat because of the refs on Monday night. This is a chance to support the team again without having to pay the ‘juice’ to do so.”

The ‘no juice’ only applies to straight wagers placed on the Packers.

From William Hill:

LAS VEGAS (September 28, 2012) – Green Bay Packers fans who lost bets at the mercy of the replacement referees Monday night will have a special chance to get even this weekend at all William Hill Sports Books in Nevada.
William Hill is offering “no juice” on Packers straight bets through kickoff of Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. This means that William Hill will not charge the standard bookmaker’s 11/10 commission in which bettors must wager 0 for every 0 they wish to win. William Hill will be offering straight bets on the Packers side at even money.

3:30 pm – September 28, 2012

According to the odds at sportsbook.ag, USC is still a slight favorite over Oregon to win the Pac-12 championship game. The Trojans are listed at even, and the Ducks at +125.

The offshore book also has odds listed for ACC, Big Ten and SEC.

Florida State is a -600 favorite in the ACC, with Virginia Tech holding the second-best odds at +450. In the Big Ten, Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin have the best odds at +200, +225 and +300, respectively. Meanwhile, in the SEC, Alabama is the favorite at +120, with LSU (+225) and Georgia (+350) right behind.

2:45 pm – September 28, 2012

Below you’ll find a list of some of the largest, and most interesting line moves heading into Week 5 in college football. For a complete breakdown of the moves, including analysis, click here.

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ARKANSAS @ TEXAS A&M
Opened: Texas A&M -11
Current: Texas A&M -14.5

TEXAS @ OKLAHOMA STATE
Opened: Oklahoma State -2
Current: Texas -2.5

ARIZONA STATE @ CALIFORNIA
Opened: California -2
Current: Arizona State -1

MINNESOTA @ IOWA
Opened: Iowa -5.5
Current: Iowa -7.5

2:00 pm – September 28, 2012

With just six games left in the regular season, Detroit is starting to pull away from Chicago in the American League Central division race. The Tigers, in the midst of a four-game win streak, have extended their divisional lead to two games over the White Sox, who have lost three straight.

Oddsmakers at sportsbook.ag list Detroit as a -1200 favorite to win the division.

Meanwhile, in the American League East, the Yankees hold a one-game advantage over the Orioles, including -350 odds to win the division.

1:15 pm – September 28, 2012

Sporting News has an interesting page that tracks NFL against the spread records, in addition to how many points each team covers by. So far, the Falcons have covered the spread by a league-leading 15 points per game, even better than the Cardinals, who have won all three games outright as an underdog.

The team that has failed to cover the spread by the widest margin? New Orleans, which has failed to cover by an average of 13 points per game.

Below is a list of average cover margins in the NFL.

* * *

Atlanta +15.00
Arizona +14.67
Houston +8.50
Seattle +7.67
NY Giants +6.33
Baltimore +5.00
Tampa Bay +4.67
Miami +4.67
Chicago +4.00
Minnesota +3.67
NY Jets +2.17
Buffalo +1.83
Cleveland +1.25
San Diego +1.17
New England +1.00
St. Louis +0.67
Denver +0.50
Washington -0.17
San Francisco -0.83
Pittsburgh -1.17
Jacksonville -1.67
Green Bay -3.67
Indianapolis -4.00
Detroit -4.17
Cincinnati -4.67
Dallas -5.17
Kansas City -6.00
Oakland -8.50
Carolina -9.83
Tennessee -10.50
Philadelphia -11.30
New Orleans -13.00

12:30 pm – September 28, 2012

The Baylor-West Virginia total opened at 78 but is currently 83 at most Las Vegas and offshore books. Since 1989, there have only been five games with totals in the 80s, but none have been this high.

Baylor has been involved in each of the last three games with totals listed in the 80s. Their previous two games went ‘over’ the posted total.

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11:51 am – September 28, 2012

ESPN’s Colin Cowherd just announced his “Blazing Five” selections. He went 4-1 last weekend for the second week in a row and is now 10-5 on the season.

In Week 4, Cowherd thinks Josh Freeman shouldn’t be favored over Robert Griffin III and people don’t understand just how bad New Orleans is yet. He also says the Patriots will perform well at Buffalo trying to avoid a three-game losing skid and the Raiders shouldn’t be catching a full touchdown at Denver.

Cowherd’s “best bet” of the weekend is the 49ers as 4-point favorites at the Jets, who will be without stud cornerback Darrelle Revis for the rest of the season.

Redskins +2.5 at Buccaneers
Packers -7.5 vs. Saints
Patriots -4 at Bills
Raiders +7 at Broncos
49ers -4 at Jets

11:30 am – September 28, 2012

At least one Las Vegas oddsmaker thinks the Giants will be favored over the Eagles by kickoff on Sunday. Bert Osborne, sportsbook director for South Point, told David Purdum that his book has received plenty of action on the Giants, who are currently 1-point underdogs after opening plus-3.

Given that New York has been the best ATS road team under Tom Coughlin, the move isn’t all that surprising. Since Coughlin’s arrival, the Giants are 36-15 ATS on the road. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 0-3 ATS so far this season.

10:45 am – September 28, 2012

BYU quarterback Riley Nelson is questionable for the Cougars’ game against Hawaii Friday night. According to Jay Drew, BYU beat writer for the Salt Lake Tribune, neither the coaches nor the players gave a distinct answer when asked about whether or not Nelson would play. However, Drew came away feeling as if backup Taysom Hill would start under center.

In last week’s 7-6 loss to Boise State, Nelson threw for just 19 yards and three interceptions for the Cougars, who are 27-point home favorites against Hawaii.

10:00 am – September 28, 2012

State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, of New Jersey, is looking to pass a law that would prevent sporting events from occurring in the state without regular officials. Sweeney believes that having replacement officials hurts the integrity of the game, and wouldn’t be good for the state when sports betting is legalized.

“I still intend to move forward with legislation requiring the use of properly trained officials for professional sporting events in New Jersey,” Sweeney said. “With sports betting coming to New Jersey, it will be more important than ever to protect the professionalism and integrity of sporting events.”

5:00 pm – September 27, 2012

Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian is an impressive 6-1 ATS with extra time to prepare, which is exactly what the Huskies had before they meet with Stanford tonight.

The Cardinal are currently 7-point favorites. Over their last three meetings, Washington has been outscored by an average of 42-12.

4:30 pm – September 27, 2012

Each week, Bovada comes out with a list of special prop bets for the NFL. This week, the offshore sportsbook produced more than 10, including how many times announcers will reference referee Ed Hochuli’s biceps this weekend.

How many times will the live on air announcers mention Ed Hochuli’s biceps during the broadcast in the game he refs Week 4?
Over 1 (EVEN)
Under 1 (-140)

Below you’ll find a list of other interesting props (Week 4 Specials) currently available at Bovada.

* * *

Will a coach be fined by the NFL for berating referees on field or making comments about them after the Week 4 games?

Yes (+300)
No (-500)

Will there be another game tying or winning TD Pass of 40+Yards on the last play of regulation in the 2012 Regular Season?

Yes (-300)
No (+200)

3:30 pm – September 27, 2012

The Houston-Rice point spread has seen a lot of movement given the uncertainty surrounding Owls starting quarterback Taylor McHargue, who suffered a shoulder injury against Marshall in Week 3.

The line opened with the Cougars favored by seven points but quickly moved to Houston -4. With McHargue doubtful for this weekend’s game, the line has since moved back to seven points.

2:45 pm – September 27, 2012

Betting on NFL underdogs has been a profitable strategy through the first three weeks of the season, but will the trend continue now that the regular officials are making their return?

So far, underdogs are 29-18-1 ATS, including 22 straight up victories. Last week, the NFL saw nine underdogs of three points or more win outright for the first time since Week 16 in 2006.

2:00 pm – September 27, 2012

Who are the “luckiest” NFL teams through the first three weeks of the season?

There are multiple ways to judge that, but one fairly agreed-upon measure is what we’ll call the “fumble recovery rate.” Once a fumble hits the turf, they say, it’s generally 50-50 over the course of the season which team will come up with the loose ball.

Therefore, any teams that are well over 50 percent are just getting lucky, while any teams significantly under 50 percent should be bound for a reversal of fortune.

From Grantland’s Bill Barnwell (notice the ATS records):

MOST “LUCKY” TEAMS

Falcons: 6 of 6 (3-0 ATS)
Jets: 5 of 6 (2-1 ATS)
Redskins: 9 of 11 (1-2 ATS)
Patriots: 4 of 5 (2-1 ATS)
Bears: 3 of 4 (2-1 ATS)

MOST “UNLUCKY” TEAMS

Chiefs: 1 of 8 (1-2 ATS)
Titans: 1 of 7 (1-2 ATS)
Colts: 1 of 6 (1-2 ATS)
Broncos: 1 of 6 (1-2 ATS)
Eagles: 3 of 11 (0-3 ATS)

1:45 pm – September 27, 2012

Three teams enter Week 4 with perfect 3-0 records; Arizona, Atlanta and Houston. Offshore sportsbook Bovada recently set odds as to whether or not all three will build on their early-season success and make the playoffs.

As it stands now, ‘yes’ is the current favorite at -175. Atlanta and Houston look to be locks for the postseason, but can the Cardinals continue to outperform their preseason expectations?

1:00 pm – September 27, 2012

Chicago will likely have Matt Forte back for its Monday Night game against Dallas. Forte sprained his ankle in the Bears’ loss to the Packers on Sept. 13, but returned to practice Wednesday. Chicago is currently a 3.5-point road underdog.

12:15 pm – September 27, 2012

Three of the biggest line moves for Week 4 in the NFL:

New England -4 (-6)
Buffalo

San Diego
Kansas City -1 (+1.5)

Tennessee
Houston -12 (-11)

11:30 am – September 27, 2012

Ryan Tunnicliffe, midfielder for Manchester United, made his father proud Wednesday. Not only did Tunnicliffe come on as a substitute in the 77th minute in Manchester’s game against Newcastle United, he also won his father, Max, £10,000.

Confident in his son’s ability, Max placed a £100 wager at 100-to-1 odds that his son would one day play for Manchester United. The bet was placed 10 years ago, when Ryan was just nine years old.

10:45 am – September 27, 2012

Bettors can breathe a sigh of relief after the NFL and the Official’s Union finally came to an agreement early Thursday morning. According to ESPN, the officials will be back for Thursday Night’s AFC North matchup between Baltimore and Cleveland.

10:00 am – September 27, 2012

LVH SuperContest Week 4 lines:

Browns
Ravens -12

Patriots
Bills +4

Vikings
Lions -6.5

Panthers
Falcons -7

49ers
Jets +4

Chargers
Chiefs -1

Titans
Texans -12

Seahawks
Rams +2.5

Dolphins
Cardinals -6.5

Raiders
Broncos -6.5

Bengals
Jaguars +2.5

Saints
Packers -7.5

Redskins
Buccaneers -3

Giants
Eagles -2.5

Bears
Cowboys -3.5

5:00 pm – September 26, 2012

Before the NFL season began, TheGreek came out with a prop as to which conference would see one of its head coaches fired before the end of the regular season. The line was originally even (-115), but it has since moved to AFC -135, NFC +105.

4:15 pm – September 26, 2012

Montee Ball, who injured his head in Wisconsin’s win over UTEP, should be ready to go when the Badgers take on Nebraska Saturday as 12-point underdogs.

In an interview on SiriusXM’s College Sports Nation, head coach Bret Bielema said that Ball should be ready for full contact Thursday.

“[Wednesday] he should go through practice with a green jersey, which means no contact,” Bielema said. “And then on Thursday he expects to get full clearance and be ready to roll.”

3:30 pm – September 26, 2012

Top 10 teams in college football’s USA Today poll experienced a fourth consecutive losing week against the spread. Combined the Top 10 went 4-5 ATS in Week 4.

Week-by-week look at Top 10 ATS results:

Week 1: 2-8 ATS
Week 2: 4-5 ATS
Week 3: 4-5 ATS
Week 4: 4-5 ATS

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Week 5 lines for Top 10 teams (BetOnline)

Mississippi
Alabama -31

Oregon -29
Washington State

Florida State -17
South Florida

Tennessee
Georgia -13

South Carolina -20.5
Kentucky

Baylor
West Virginia -13

Stanford -6.5
Washington

Texas -3
Oklahoma State

2:45 pm – September 26, 2012

After an ‘eventful’ Week 3 in the NFL, capped off by a dramatic finish in the Monday Night game, we’re starting to get a better idea of where teams stack up. In ESPN’s latest power rankings, the NFC West saw a couple of its teams—Arizona and Seattle—climb nine and seven spots, respectively.

Here is a complete list of ESPN’s Power Rankings, along with each team’s odds to win the Super Bowl (5Dimes):

1. Texans (+500)
2. Falcons (+800)
3. Ravens (+1000)
4. 49ers (+800)
5. Cardinals (+2700)
6. Giants (+1900)
7. Packers (+800)
8. Patriots (+800)
9. Eagles (+2500)
10. Seahawks (+2600)
11. Bears (+2800)
12. Cowboys (+2700)
13. Chargers (+2300)
14. Broncos (+2400)
15. Bengals (+8500)
16. Steelers (+3300)
17. Jets (+5000)
18. Lions (+6600)
19. Bills (+7500)
20. Buccaneers (+18500)
21. Vikings (+11000)
22. Redskins (+12500)
23. Panthers (+18500)
24. Titans (+22500)
25. Rams (+35000)
26. Chiefs (+12500)
27. Raiders (+15000)
28. Saints (+9000)
29. Dolphins (+35000)
30. Jaguars (+35000)
31. Colts (+40000)
32. Browns (+100000)

2:00 pm – September 26, 2012

Arizona, Atlanta, Houston and Tampa Bay are the last four teams in the NFL with perfect ATS records. Most impressive so far would have to be the Cardinals, who have won three straight games outright as underdogs.

Will any of the four remain unbeaten ATS following their Week 4 games? Below you’ll find a list of each team’s Week 4 point spreads at the LVH.

* * *

Arizona -6.5 vs. Miami
Atlanta -7 vs. Carolina
Houston -12 vs. Tennessee
Tampa Bay -3 vs. Washington

1:15 pm – September 26, 2012

Baltimore and Cleveland hold two of the NFL’s longest active streaks, and if oddsmakers are correct, both will extend their streaks following Thursday Night’s meeting. The Ravens, who have won 12 straight home games, are -650 moneyline favorites against the Browns, who have lost nine consecutive games dating back to last season.

For those that think Cleveland can snap the streaks, a $100 bet on the moneyline would yield a $475 profit.

12:30 pm – September 26, 2012

Tiger Woods is a +850 favorite to lead the Ryder Cup in scoring. However, after Woods, the next three favorites–Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter–are all members of the European team. In fact, only three of the top 10 projected scorers are representing the USA.

* * *

Top Scorer Odds at 5Dimes

Tiger Woods +850
Rory McIlroy +975
Luke Donald +1350
Ian Poulter +1400
Dustin Johnson +1550
Lee Westwood +1600
Justin Rose +1650
Sergio Garcia +1650
Steve Stricker +1750
Graeme McDowell +1800
Bubba Watson +2000
Phil Mickelson +2000
Matt Kuchar +2200
Webb Simpson +2200
Brandt Snedeker +2500
Jason Dufner +2500
Jim Furyk +2800
Keegan Bradley +3500
Zach Johnson +3500
Paul Lawrie +3600
Martin Kaymer +4200
Nicolas Colsaerts +4200
Francesco Molinari +5000
Peter Hanson +5000

11:45 am – September 26, 2012

There are only five teams left in college football that are 4-0 against the spread: Ball State, Fresno State, Northwestern, San Jose State and Western Kentucky.

Below is a list of point spreads for each of their games in Week 5. For a complete breakdown of the teams, including “Buy or Sell” value, click here.

* * *

Ball State -1 at Kent State
San Diego State at Fresno State -7.5
Indiana at Northwestern -11
San Jose State -2.5 at Navy
Western Kentucky -2.5 at Arkansas State

11:00 am – September 26, 2012

Updated AFC Divisional Odds (sportsbook.ag)…

AFC EAST
Patriots -250
Bills +300
Jets +450
Dolphins +5000

AFC NORTH
Ravens -160
Steelers +200
Bengals +450
Browns +8000

AFC SOUTH
Texans -9000
Titans +1000
Colts +2500
Jaguars +3000

AFC WEST
Chargers +130
Broncos +140
Chiefs +450
Raiders +600

10:45 am – September 26, 2012

Updated NFC Divisional Odds (sportsbook.ag)…

NFC EAST
Giants +150
Eagles +175
Cowboys +225
Redskins +1000

NFC NORTH
Packers -185
Bears +200
Lions +700
Vikings +1500

NFC SOUTH
Falcons -700
Saints +800
Buccaneers +1000
Panthers +1200

NFC WEST
49ers -250
Cardinals +350
Seahawks +450
Rams +3500

10:00 am – September 26, 2012

Freddie Freeman’s two-run walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth catapulted Atlanta into the postseason, joining the likes of Cincinnati, San Francisco and Washington, all of which have clinched a spot in the playoffs. And with St. Louis’ 4.5-game lead over Milwaukee and Los Angeles for the final spot, the National League playoff picture appears to be set.

The American League, however, is all but decided. The Yankees hold a 1.5-game lead over Baltimore in the AL East, the AL Central has two teams—Chicago and Detroit—deadlocked in first, and Texas has a 4-game lead over Oakland in the AL West.

* * *

Complete list of World Series futures at 5Dimes

Texas Rangers +400
Cincinnati Reds +550
New York Yankees +575
Washington Nationals +575
San Francisco Giants +800
Atlanta Braves +1400
Baltimore Orioles +1600
Detroit Tigers +1600
Chicago White Sox +1800
Oakland Athletics +2000
St. Louis Cardinals +2000
Los Angeles Angels +2200
Milwaukee Brewers +4000
Los Angeles Dodgers +5000
Tampa Bay Rays +5000
Philadelphia Phillies +11500
Pittsburgh Pirates +35000

5:00 pm – September 25, 2012

ESPN College GameDay will be in East Lansing for the game between Ohio State and Michigan State Saturday, which means Lee Corso will have to choose either the Spartans or Buckeyes to win the game.

5Dimes is offering a prop on his decision, listing Michigan State as a -210 favorite to be selected by Corso.

4:30 pm – September 25, 2012

In sticking with today’s theme, the Seahawks-Packers outcome couldn’t have gone better for one lucky participant in William Hill’s Pro Pick ‘em contest, who picked 14 of 16 outright winners correct, including Seattle.

The Seahawks’ last-second victory gave the participant sole possession of first place for the week, earning him $15,000.

4:00 pm – September 25, 2012

The controversial call that gave Seattle the win over Green Bay Monday Night has received plenty of national attention, including from President Barack Obama, who believes it’s time for the regular refs to get back to work.

Given that the President is well known for his love of sports, we won’t make the assumption that his opinion had anything to do with the political importance of Wisconsin.

3:15 pm – September 25, 2012

Home underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of 19 games in the NFL. In Week 4, there are currently four teams catching points at home:

1.) Jacksonville +2.5 vs. Cincinnati
2.) St. Louis +2.5 vs. Seattle
3.) NY Jets +4 vs. San Francisco
4.) Buffalo +4 vs. New England

2:30 pm – September 25, 2012

Below are the highest totals for college football Week 5. There are eight totals in the 60s and three in the 70s, including the West Virginia/Baylor matchup, which is currently at 79 points.

Don’t be surprised if that game reaches 80 by kickoff.

* * *

117 Clemson
118 Boston College 60

119 Louisiana Tech
120 Virginia 61.5

125 Idaho
126 North Carolina 60

129 Marshall
130 Purdue 64.5

145 Oregon
146 Washington State 70.5

151 Baylor
152 West Virginia 79

155 Tennessee
156 Georgia 61.5

175 Nevada
176 Texas State 65

187 Houston
188 Rice 74

191 San Diego State
192 Fresno State 60

201 Middle Tennessee State
202 Georgia Tech 62.5

1:45 pm – September 25, 2012

The Lions-Vikings point spread remains ‘off the board’ because of the uncertainty surrounding Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford’s injury.

Head coach Jim Schwartz said that the team would likely make a decision Friday. ”We’ll see how he progresses through this week,” Schwartz said. “Friday we’ll make a determination what the availability is, same as every team does.”

Detroit originally opened as a 7.5-point favorite in the LVH’s ‘look-ahead’ lines released Sept. 19.

1:00 pm – September 25, 2012

If you predicted the Saints and Packers would have a combined 1-5 record for their showdown this week, come forward for your prize. New Orleans—desperately trying to avoid an 0-4 start—is a 7.5-point underdog, the first time they’ll be catching at least a touchdown since 2009.

For a complete list of NFL Week 4 lines, click here.

12:15 pm – September 25, 2012

The addition of Steve Nash and Dwight Howard caused the Lakers’ futures odds to rise from 12-to-1 to 3-to-1, but the move hasn’t been enough to deter bettors in Las Vegas.

According to Jay Kornegay, VP of Race and Sports for the LVH, bettors have wagered twice as much money on Los Angeles to win the NBA Championship than on the Miami Heat.

* * *

5Dimes’ odds to win NBA Championship

Miami Heat +180
Los Angeles Lakers +250
Oklahoma City Thunder +525
Chicago Bulls +1300
San Antonio Spurs +1500
Los Angeles Clippers +2500
Boston Celtics +2600
Brooklyn Nets +3700
Indiana Pacers +3900
Dallas Mavericks +4000
New York Knicks +4000
Memphis Grizzlies +4500
Philadelphia 76ers +5500
Denver Nuggets +7500
Houston Rockets +8500
Atlanta Hawks +9500
Minnesota Timberwolves +9500
Portland Trail Blazers +11500
Utah Jazz +12000
Orlando Magic +13500
Milwaukee Bucks +14500
New Orleans Hornets +17500
Golden State Warriors +18000
Phoenix Suns +19000
Cleveland Cavaliers +20000
Detroit Pistons +20000
Washington Wizards +20000
Toronto Raptors +22500
Sacramento Kings +25000
Charlotte Bobcats +50000

11:30 am – September 25, 2012

Week 3 in the NFL and Week 4 in college football proved to be one of the worst weekends for those that like to support favorites.

According to Micah Roberts of GamingToday.com, underdogs in college football posted an impressive 28-17-2 ATS record Saturday. The trend continued with the NFL after underdogs finished with a 12-4 ATS record and 10 outright victories.

From Gaming Today:

There were some instances of bettors changing their habits a little by siding with a few underdogs, but for the most part, it’s not easy for them to bet against the favorites they all know and love. Saturday’s college action saw the favorites go 17-28-2 against-the-spread and it got even worse Sunday when almost every elite favorite went down for the count, going 4-10 ATS.
The underdogs didn’t just cover the spread, a large portion of them also won outright, which not only rakes in a ton of wins through parlays, but also wipes out the bulk of all teaser and money-line plays. We saw 14 of the 28 underdogs that covered in college win outright. Eight of the 10 dogs that covered in the pros won straight-up, an obscene amount that is nearly comparable to an eclipse occurring.

10:45 am – September 25, 2012

If there was ever a perfect time for a sportsbook to issue a refund, this was it. The result in Monday Night’s game between Seattle and Green Bay was so controversial that it resulted in Sportsbook.ag refunding those that bet on the Packers.

UPDATE: OK, maybe not.

10:00 am – September 25, 2012

ESPN reports that Golden Tate’s “immaculate reception” had an estimated $150-250 million impact on Monday Night Football wagers, according to both Las Vegas and offshore oddsmakers.

5:00 pm – September 24, 2012

New Orleans is 0-3 for the first time since starting 0-4 in 2007, yet the Saints still hold the second-best odds to win the NFC South at 6-to-1.

Atlanta is the runaway favorite at -600 and both Carolina and Tampa Bay share 10-to-1 odds to claim the division title.

4:30 pm – September 24, 2012

John Avello, executive director of the sportsbook at the Las Vegas Wynn, told David Purdum that his book took exactly zero wagers on Oklahoma State -5.5 against Texas when the line was first released.

Instead, all of the action has come in on the Longhorns, who are now 2.5-point favorites.

4:00 pm – September 24, 2012

The Ryder Cup begins this weekend and oddsmakers list the United States as a -150 favorite over Europe.

TEAM EUROPE

Nicolas Colsaerts
Sergio Garcia
Martin Kaymer
Graeme McDowell
Francesco Molinari
Justin Rose
Luke Donald
Peter Hanson
Paul Lawrie
Rory McIlroy
Ian Poulter
Lee Westwood

TEAM USA

Keegan Bradley
Jim Furyk
Zach Johnson
Phil Mickelson
Brandt Snedeker
Bubba Watson
Jason Dufner
Dustin Johnson
Matt Kuchar
Webb Simpson
Steve Stricker
Tiger Woods

3:15 pm – September 24, 2012

The LVH SuperContest consensus plays went 2-2-1 in Week 3 and are now just 6-8-1 overall. Tonight’s matchup between Green Bay and Seattle has 180 participants backing the Packers as three point favorites and just 80 siding with the home underdog.

2:30 pm – September 24, 2012

New England opened as a 6-point favorite against Buffalo in the Week 4 lines released by Cris, but the number didn’t stay there for long. According to Todd Fuhrman, the line was bet down to Patriots -3.5 within 20 minutes of the line being released.

1:45 pm – September 24, 2012

Darrelle Revis’ return to action was short-lived, as he left Sunday’s game against the Dolphins in the third quarter after injuring himself during an attempted tackle.

Unfortunately, Revis will now have to miss the remainder of the season. An MRI on Monday revealed that he tore his ACL in his left knee and will require season-ending surgery.

1:00 pm – September 24, 2012

Complete list of Super Bowl odds at the LVH

Texans +350
49ers +600
Packers +700
Falcons +700
Ravens +800
Patriots +1000
Giants +2000
Chargers +2000
Cowboys +2000
Broncos +2500
Bears +2500
Steelers +2500
Eagles +2500
Jets +3000
Cardinals +3000
Bills +4000
Bengals +5000
Seahawks +5000
Lions +6000
Saints +8000
Panthers +10000
Titans +10000
Vikings +10000
Chiefs +10000
Raiders +10000
Buccaneers +10000
Redskins +10000
Jaguars +20000
Dolphins +30000
Colts +30000
Rams +30000
Browns +100000

12:15 pm – September 24, 2012

Miguel Cabrera is closing in on the first Triple Crown in baseball since Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat back in 1967. With only 10 games remaining, Cabrera leads the American League in batting average (.331) and runs batted in (133) and is tied with Josh Hamilton with a league-leading 42 home runs.

Oddsmakers at TheGreek sportsbook think Cabrera has a really good chance of winning the Triple Crown, listing him as a -360 favorite to do so.


9/28	General Prop	8201	Yes
18:00	Will Miguel Cabrera win the Triple Crown in 2012	8202	No

11:30 am – September 24, 2012

Greg Jennings, who missed the Packers’ Week 2 game against Chicago, told ESPN’s Lisa Salters that he expects to play against Seattle tonight. It was originally thought that Jennings would miss close to four weeks after injuring his groin in Green Bay’s season-opening loss to San Francisco.

The Packers are currently 3.5-point favorites.

10:45 am – September 24, 2012

Teams in the USA Today Top 10 combined for a losing record against the spread for a fourth consecutive week:

Week 1: 2-8 ATS
Week 2: 4-5 ATS
Week 3: 4-5 ATS
Week 4: 4-5 ATS

* * *

Week 5 point spreads for Top 10 teams (opening lines)

161 Ole Miss
162 Alabama -31.5 (-32)

145 Oregon -29
146 Washington State

171 Florida State -16 (-15)
172 South Florida

155 Tennessee
156 Georgia -14 (-15.5)

133 South Carolina OFF
134 Kentucky

151 Baylor
152 West Virginia -12 (-10.5)

103 Stanford -7 (-7.5)
104 Washington

147 Texas -2.5 (+2)
148 Oklahoma State

10:00 am – September 24, 2012

Updated USA Today Poll, with corresponding futures odds from the LVH:

1. Alabama (+160)
2. Oregon (+800)
3. LSU (+400)
4. Florida State (+600)
5. Georgia (+700)
6. South Carolina (+2000)
7. West Virginia (+2500)
8. Kansas State (+5000)
9. Stanford (+5000)
10. Texas (+3000)
11. Notre Dame (+2000)
12. Florida (+4000)
13. USC (+1200)
14. TCU (+10000)
15. Oklahoma (+6000)
16. Clemson (+50000)
17. Louisville (+10000)
18. Michigan State (+20000)
19. Mississippi State (+30000)
20. Nebraska (+20000)
21. Oregon State (n/a)
22. Oklahoma State (+20000)
23. Wisconsin (+100000)
24. Baylor (+30000)
25. Rutgers (n/a)
25. Virginia Tech (+30000)

5:00 pm – September 21, 2012

ESPN.com’s Chad Millman had football handicapper Warren Sharp on his podcast today to discuss the replacement refs and their impact on NFL betting.

Sharp recently wrote a well-researched piece on the refs and the types of calls they’re making (and not making), and while the sample he uses is admittedly small, it will be interesting to see if the trends continue to hold true going forward.

From Sharp’s website:

Between:
penalties CALLED against the road team (which are tracked),
penalties incorrectly NOT CALLED on the home team (not tracked), and
other blown calls in favor of the home team, such as ball possession, ball spots, clock issues, etc,
the advantage home teams (and their rowdy crowds) have had on the officials has been remarkable, and clearly measurable.

4:00 pm – September 21, 2012

Is New England’s offensive play-calling predictable?

ESPN Stats & Info broke down New England’s pass/run plays today, a few days after Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Tim Horton suggested the Pats tipped their plays by formation. According to Horton, Brady always passed out of the shotgun, particularly after tight end Aaron Hernandez left the game with injury.

Click here for ESPN’s statistical breakdown.

The conclusion:

The Patriots may need to vary their tendencies on Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens. Recent history suggests Baltimore is all over it.
Since the start of 2008, Brady is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt in shotgun against the Ravens (four games), tied for his third-lowest average against a single opponent.

3:30 pm – September 21, 2012

Be careful at casinos.

But, perhaps more importantly, be careful on your way home when and if you win at a casino.

Four separate gamblers in Philadelphia have been tased and robbed in the past nine days following successful nights at the SugarHouse Casino.

From myfoxphilly.com:

There have been a series of robberies, all targeting people of Asian descent.
Police say the suspects have followed four victims to their homes and used a stun gun on them once they got out of their cars. They were then robbed of their cash.
The robberies happened in the early-morning hours between Sept. 12 and Sept. 19th.
So far, ,000 has been taken, police said.

2:45 pm – September 21, 2012

Three days ago, Wisconsin offensive coordinator Matt Canada told reporters that quarterback Danny O’Brien was likely to be the team’s starter against UTEP despite getting pulled at halftime of the team’s ugly 16-14 victory over Utah State.

Apparently, O’Brien had a rough couple days of practice, because he’ll be yielding quarterback duties to backup Joel Stave, the team announced.

From ESPN:

Redshirt freshman quarterback Joel Stave will get his first start for Wisconsin on Saturday against UTEP, Badgers coach Bret Bielema confirmed after practice Thursday.
Stave replaced Danny O’Brien in the second half of last week’s win against Utah State, completing 2 of 6 passes for 15 yards in a 16-14 win.

Wisconsin is currently listed as a 17.5-point favorite.

2:00 pm – September 21, 2012

For all you horse racing nuts out there (we know you’re somewhere), Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello recently released preliminary 2013 Kentucky Derby odds.

The race is still more than seven months away, but Avello came up with odds for 162 different horses, listing Uncaptured as a 30-to-1 favorite.

Shanghai Bobby was initially listed second at 40-to-1, but bets placed on him forced Avello to shift the odds down and make him a co-favorite at 30-to-1.

1:15 pm – September 21, 2012

What will be the most popular game to bet on during Week 3 in the NFL?

South Point sportsbook director Bert Osborne says that “without a doubt” it will be the Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens.

“There are so many different angles to look at in this game that make it appealing for the bettors,” Osborne told the Sporting News. “Not to mention, it is the featured isolated Sunday night game.”

Two very popular teams, a very close point spread, and a nationally televised night game. Yep, sure makes a lot of sense.

Interestingly enough, though, SportsInsights—which does a great job measuring number of bets and public betting information—currently says four games (Bucs-Cowboys, Niners-Vikings, Chiefs-Saints and Packers-Saints) are receiving more bets across multiple sportsbooks.

Don’t be surprised to see that change by Sunday night.

12:30 pm – September 21, 2012

One of the biggest criticisms of the NFL’s replacement referees has been that they’re influenced too much by the crowds and are subsequently flagging visiting teams more than home teams.

Earlier this week, Cantor Gaming’s Mike Colbert said the refs might force him to sway the point spreads an extra half-point in favor of the home team.

Through two weeks, 55.1 percent of the 419 penalties have been called on the away teams. But how different is that from last year?

Hardly at all.

An Associated Press report says, “Last year began in a similar fashion—visitors took 54.8 percent of 407 total penalties through the first two games—before evening out over the rest of the season.”

11:42 am – September 21, 2012

ESPN’s Colin Cowherd just announced his “Blazing Five” selections for this weekend. He went 4-1 last weekend and is now 6-4 on the season.

In Week 3, Cowherd thinks bettors are overreacting to Dallas’ meltdown at Seattle, the Niners are in a “classic letdown spot” as touchdown-favorites at Minnesota, and Arizona and Cincinnati will both win outright as underdogs.

His best bet? That’d be the New York Jets as 2.5-point road favorites at Miami, because Reggie Bush won’t be able to “run wild” on a stout Rex Ryan defense.

Cowboys -7 vs. Buccaneers
Cardinals +4 vs. Eagles
Bengals +3.5 at Redskins
Vikings +7 vs. 49ers
Jets -2.5 at Dolphins

11:03 am – September 21, 2012

Who’s the new favorite among sharp bettors in Las Vegas?

That’d be the Oregon State Beavers, says a recent article in the LA Times.

Oregon State opened as an 11.5-point road underdog for its showdown with fellow unbeaten UCLA this weekend, but the Beavers were quickly bet down to the current 7-point spread.

“The sharp bettors think highly of Oregon State,” MGM sports book director Jay Rood told the Times. “It’s all sharp money now.”

Hmm, this prediction is off to a great start.

10:00 am – September 21, 2012

Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian recently said he would no longer release injury updates because it gives his team an unfair advantage given that other teams in the conference don’t release them.

Fair enough.

Bob Stoops, however, took his reasoning to a whole new level, claiming that the problem with releasing injury updates is that it benefits gambling.

“To me the problem is it’s all about gambling,” Stoops said. “They’re the ones that have the true interest in it, and this is college sports. We should not contribute to those who are gambling on college sports. The NFL? Have at it. Go to Vegas, bet on them all, whatever. But gambling is the issue.”

5:00 pm – September 20, 2012

The Giants-Panthers point spread opened at New York -1.5 and quickly moved to Carolina -2.5 after news struck that Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw would be out for the Thursday Night Football showdown.

Since then, the line has moved to Panthers -3 at the LVH and most offshore books.

4:30 pm – September 20, 2012

On Wednesday, TheGreek sportsbook came out with college basketball conference odds. Today, they continued with the college basketball theme and released odds for three separate events: The Maui Invitational, the ACC-Big Ten challenge and the Big East-SEC challenge.

* * *

Maui Invitational Odds

Butler +800
Chaminade +50000
Illinois +300
Marquette +500
Mississippi State +1200
North Carolina +150
Southern Cal +800
Texas +175

ACC-Big Ten Challenge Odds

ACC -125
Big Ten -105

Big East-SEC Challenge Odds

Big East -125
SEC -105

4:00 pm – September 20, 2012

Baylor holds the nation’s second-longest win streak at eight games and a 13-1 record against Sun Belt opponents. However, the Bears will be tested on Friday when they travel to UM-Monroe as a 7-point favorite.

The Bears haven’t lost to a Sun Belt opponent since a 52-16 loss to North Texas in 2003. However, their game against the Warhawks should be anything but easy.

Louisiana-Monroe, playing its third-straight BCS opponent, opened the season with an upset victory over Arkansas and nearly earned back-to-back victories over SEC opponents before losing in overtime against Auburn.

Only Marshall-Rice (70.5) and Arizona-Oregon (78.5) have higher game totals than Baylor-ULM (69.5) this weekend.

3:15 pm – September 20, 2012

With all the talk about the impact replacement refs have had on the outcome of games, Sportsbettingonline.ag recently came out with a list of props that involve the amount of penalties that will be called in Week 3.

* * *

AVERAGE GAME TIME

Over 3 hours, 11 minutes
Under 3 hours, 11 minutes

DEFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE PENALTIES

Over 17.5
Under 17.5

OFFENSIVE HOLDING CALLS

Over 31.5
Under 31.5

UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS CALLS

Over 20.5
Under 20.5

2:30 pm – September 20, 2012

With increased scoring in the NFL, bettors are seeing totals higher than ever before, including averages that are set to break all-time highs. At the LVH, for example, the average total for Week 3 is currently 45.9 points.

Even Cantor Gaming is using the increase in scoring as a method for offering new props. For the first time ever, bettors can place a wager on the total points scored in Week 3, which Cantor opened at 732.5 points Thursday morning.

1:00 pm – September 20, 2012

American League odds to win MVP (TheGreek)

Miguel Cabrera -250
Mike Trout +175
Josh Hamilton +250
Robinson Cano +1500
Paul Konerko +5000
Josh Reddick +5000
Albert Pujols +7500
Adam Jones +10000
Mark Trumbo +12500
Field +800

National League odds to win MVP (TheGreek)

Buster Posey +100
Ryan Braun +175
Andrew McCutchen +300
Matt Holliday +2000
David Wright +3000
Jason Kubel +5000
Matt Kemp +5000
Carlos Beltran +7500
Joey Votto +12500
Carlos Gonzalez +25000
Field +1500

12:15 pm – September 20, 2012

Are teams in the AP Top 10 overvalued?

Unless you can predict the future, there is no simple answer to this question. The Top 10 changes each week, with new teams entering and leaving as a result of one specific performance.

So far, however, Top 10 teams could be overvalued based on their 10-18 ATS record through the first three weeks.

Week 1: 2-8 ATS
Week 2: 4-5 ATS
Week 3: 4-5 ATS

* * *

Here is a list of point spreads for games involving Top 10 teams in Week 4:

Florida Atlantic
Alabama -49

LSU -20.5
Auburn

Arizona
Oregon -20.5

Clemson
Florida State -14.5

Kansas State
Oklahoma -14

Vanderbilt
Georgia -16

Maryland
West Virginia -27

Missouri
South Carolina -10

11:30 am – September 20, 2012

Bovada released three interesting NFL prop bets this afternoon:

* * *

Worth noting: Only two teams have topped the 43-point mark this season. The Jets and Ravens scored 48 and 44 points in their Week 1 games against the Bills and Bengals, respectively.

* * *

Worth noting: There are currently six winless teams (New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City and Oakland) that could pull off the unlikely feat. Since 1990, only 12 percent of teams that lost their first two games have made postseason appearances. You’d have to go back to 2008 for the most recent occurrence, when both the Dolphins and Vikings beat the odds.

* * *

Worth noting: The Saints are still the second favorite to claim the NFC South crown, behind only the Falcons. While their defense will have to improve if they hope to turn things around, all hope isn’t lost just yet.

10:45 am – September 20, 2012

According to Mike Colbert of Cantor Gaming, home teams in the NFL will earn an extra half-point in their favor if games continue to be called the way they were in Week 2.

10:00 am – September 20, 2012

LVH SuperContest Week 3 lines:

Giants-Panthers (pk)
Bears-Rams (+7.5)
Cowboys-Buccaneers (+7)
49ers-Vikings (+7)
Lions-Titans (+3.5)
Redskins-Bengals (+3.5)
Jets-Dolphins (+3)
Saints-Chiefs (+8.5)
Bills-Browns (+3)
Colts-Jaguars (+3)
Eagles-Cardinals (+4)
Chargers-Falcons (+3.5)
Texans-Broncos (+2.5)
Steelers-Raiders (+4)
Ravens-Patriots (+3)
Packers-Seahawks (+3)

5:36 pm – September 19, 2012

Who says only quarterback injuries can move lines in the NFL?

That’s usually the theory, but we’ve seen about a 3-point jump in the Giants-Panthers line since it was officially announced that Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw will be out for New York in the Thursday Night Football showdown.

5:00 pm – September 19, 2012

College football and the NFL have taken over the sports betting world, but that didn’t stop TheGreek from releasing early futures odds for college basketball.

The offshore sportsbook lists Kentucky as the early favorite to claim the SEC championship, pegs Louisville as the best in the Big East and Texas-Kansas as the front-runners in the Big 12. But what about the other conferences?

The most surprising favorite would have to be NC State in the ACC, which is favored over both Duke and North Carolina. As for the Pac-12 and Big Ten, those honors go to Arizona and Indiana, respectively.

4:30 pm – September 19, 2012

Tonight’s MAC meeting between Buffalo and Kent State has seen some movement since the line opened at Bulls -2.5 with a total set at 54 points. The lines have since moved to Buffalo -3.5 at most books, with the total dropping to 51.

The Bulls have won four of the last five meetings, including their most recent 9-6 victory in 2009.

3:15 pm – September 19, 2012

New England, which is a 2.5-point underdog against Baltimore Sunday, is an underdog for just the 10th time since 2007, despite winning seven of the last eight games in the series.

The Patriots have had great success in the underdog role over their last five games, going 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS. Since 2007, New England is 5-2-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up as an underdog.

2:30 pm – September 19, 2012

Updated college football Week 4 line moves:

* * *

311 Clemson
312 Florida State -14 (-12)

315 Memphis
316 Duke -23.5 (-21.5)

327 Temple
328 Penn State -7.5 (-9)

335 Vanderbilt
336 Georgia -15.5 (-14)

339 Rutgers
340 Arkansas -7 (pk)

341 Fresno State
342 Tulsa -4.5 (-6.5)

343 Marshall -2.5 (pk)
344 Rice

349 Oregon State
350 UCLA -8.5 (-11.5)

353 California
354 USC -15.5 (-17)

355 Colorado
356 Washington State -19.5 (-17.5)

357 LSU -20 (-17.5)
358 Auburn

359 Miami
360 Georgia Tech -15 (-12)

361 Wyoming
362 Idaho -1.5 (+2)

363 Kentucky
364 Florida -24 (-25.5)

365 UConn -1 (+1)
366 Western Michigan

379 Ole Miss -17.5 (-13.5)
380 Tulane

383 Utah
384 Arizona State -7 (-5.5)

387 Air Force -10.5 (-13)
388 UNLV

1:45 pm – September 19, 2012

The Houston Texans are now a -1450 favorite to win the AFC South, far and away the biggest favorite in the NFL. They hold a one-game lead over the Colts and a two-game lead over the Titans and Jaguars.

* * *

Current AFC South odds:

Texans -1450
Titans +1700
Colts +2300
Jaguars +5500

1:00 pm – September 19, 2012

Is the NFL susceptible to corruption with replacement refs controlling the games? It’s a question that USA Today raises in a recent article that looks at the refs salaries, in addition to the amount of penalties being called.

According to the article, there have been a total of 43 pass interference calls through the first two weeks, which is almost twice as many as the average calls over the last three years.

From USA Today:

“It does concern me a little bit going forward,” says Mike Colbert, sports book director at Cantor Gaming, who originally held out hope the replacements would get the job done. “No one wants to lose money on a bad call.
“It’s just too big of a business to have amateurs officiating. It’s bad for business, from an NFL standpoint, from a gambling standpoint.”

12:15 pm – September 19, 2012

Twelve college football Week 4 games have totals of 60 points or more, and two matchups—Marshall/Rice (70.5) and Arizona/Oregon (77.5)—have totals in the 70s. So far this year, the over has hit just 13 times in 28 games on totals of 60-plus.

* * *

307 Baylor
308 UL-Monroe 69

313 Ball State
314 USF 62

315 Memphis
316 Duke 62

329 Maryland
330 West Virginia 62

331 Fresno State
342 Tulsa 69

343 Marshall
344 Rice 70.5

347 Arizona
348 Oregon 77.5

359 Miami
360 Georgia Tech 61

377 Akron
378 Tennessee 65

381 Louisiana Tech
382 Illinois 61.5

389 Nevada
390 Hawaii 62

395 Troy
396 North Texas 61

11:30 am – September 19, 2012

While with Stanford, head coach Jim Harbaugh led the Cardinal to a 28-22 ATS record, including back-to-back 8-5 records in his final two seasons.

A 56 percent cover rate is certainly good, but it’s nothing compared to what David Shaw and Willie Taggart have accomplished since Harbaugh left for the NFL.

Shaw and Taggart, both of which coached under Harbaugh, have covered the spread at a combined 75 percent rate (27-9-1 ATS) with Stanford and Western Kentucky, respectively.

10:45 am – September 19, 2012

The 2013 Kentucky Derby is still months away, but that hasn’t stopped John Avello, Wynn race and sportsbook director, from releasing futures odds for the race.

Uncaptured opens as a 30-to-1 favorite, followed by Shanghai Bobby (40-to-1), Tizracer (50-to-1) and three other horses with 60-to-1 odds. Overall, Avello included odds for a total of 160 3-year-old horses.

10:00 am – September 19, 2012

Steve Spurrier announced Tuesday that Connor Shaw would start against Missouri Saturday. Shaw injured his right shoulder in the Gamecocks’ opener against Vanderbilt and missed the second half of last week’s 49-6 victory over UAB.

South Carolina is currently a 10-point favorite over the Tigers.

4:30 pm – September 18, 2012

The Philadelphia Eagles took another hit on the offensive line when they found out that starting center Jason Kelce would need season-ending knee surgery.

The Eagles were already playing without starting left tackle Jason Peters, who is out until at the very least Week 6 after tearing his Achilles’ tendon in the offseason.

This is unfortunate news for a team that already has trouble protecting the quarterback. Michael Vick has been sacked four times and has experienced a league-leading 14 hits.

4:00 pm – September 18, 2012

Even after throwing three interceptions in the first quarter of Denver’s 27-21 loss to Atlanta, Peyton Manning remains one of the top three favorites to win the NFL’s MVP award.

Aaron Rodgers is the current favorite at 5-to-1, with Manning (+600) and Tom Brady (+800) rounding out the top three.

Robert Griffin III, who impressed many in his NFL debut and led Washington to a win over New Orleans, is listed as a 50-to-1 long-shot.

* * *

Complete list of MVP odds at TheGreek

Aaron Rodgers +500
Adrian Peterson +7500
Alex Smith +3000
Andrew Luck +10000
Andy Dalton +10000
Arian Foster +3000
Ben Roethlisberger +1500
Calvin Johnson +1200
Cam Newton +1200
Chris Johnson +10000
Drew Brees +1500
Eli Manning +1000
Jay Cutler +5000
Larry Fitzgerald +7500
LeSean McCoy +2000
Matt Ryan +1000
Matthew Stafford +1500
Michael Vick +1000
Peyton Manning +600
Ray Rice +3000
Robert Griiffin III +5000
Tim Tebow +25000
Tom Brady +800
Tony Romo +2000
Field +500

3:15 pm – September 18, 2012

Sports Insights recently looked at the impact replacement officials have had on sports betting. Although they admit the two-week sample size is small, the results are still pretty interesting—especially when you consider that the replacements have been characterized as “pushovers.”

Sports Insights determined that 61.3 percent of home teams have covered the spread through the first two weeks, which is much better than the 49 percent of home teams that covered the spread in the first two weeks from 2004-11.

2:30 pm – September 18, 2012

The replacement refs strike again!

Not only did they make Monday Night Football hard to watch for nearly three quarters, but a recent report from Yahoo! suggests that one ref in particular might have made reference to his fantasy football team on Sunday.

From Yahoo!:

Now, we have another conflict case — and if this one is true, it’s a major stab at the integrity of the game. On Monday, Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy was talking with Anthony Gargano and Ike Reese of Philly’s 94WIP radio when the subject of replacement officials came up.
“They’re like fans. I’ll be honest, they’re like fans. One of the refs was talking about his fantasy team, [and said], ‘McCoy, come on, I need you for my fantasy [team],’ Uhhh, what?”

Is it fair to wonder how many of these refs are gambling on these games, too?

1:45 pm – September 18, 2012

The Oregon-Arizona total, which opened at 71 points, has seen a lot of action, causing it to rise to its current position at 77. The move isn’t at all surprising, considering both teams have scored plenty of points in this matchup over the years.

In fact, you’d have to go as far back as 2007 to find a meeting between the Ducks and Wildcats that finished with a combined total of less than 77 points.

Oddly enough, this Arizona team is unlike the teams from the past. It actually moves quicker and runs more plays on offense, which means the potential for a high scoring game is almost guaranteed.

One thing to watch for, however, will be Oregon’s late-game approach. The Ducks have taken their foot off the gas in the second half in each of their first three games, but that philosophy could change with conference play starting up.

1:00 pm – September 18, 2012

Three games—Colts-Jaguars, Falcons-Chargers and Texans-Broncos—were off the board at most sportsbooks this morning, but have since been posted.

* * *

Jacksonville +3 (-110)
Indianapolis -3 (-110)

Atlanta +3 (-105)
San Diego -3 (-115)

Houston pk (-110)
Denver pk (-110)

12:15 pm – September 18, 2012

The winner of the 2012 FedEx Cup will be decided this weekend at the Tour Championship in Georgia.

Rory McIlroy is the current leader in points, but any of the golfers in the Top 5—Tiger Woods, Nick Watney, Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker—can win the Cup with a victory at East Lake.

* * *

Odds to win Tour Championship at 5Dimes

Rory McIlroy +440
Tiger Woods +515
Phil Mickelson +1200
Brandt Snedeker +4500
Nick Watney +5000

11:30 am – September 18, 2012

Missouri quarterback James Franklin, who sat out against Arizona State because of shoulder inflammation, says there is a 90 percent chance he plays this weekend against South Carolina.

The junior QB was injured in the Tigers’ 41-20 loss to Georgia on Sept. 8. Missouri is a 10-point underdog against the Gamecocks Saturday.

10:45 am – September 18, 2012

New England’s offense relies heavily on the play it gets from the tight end position. This became evident when Rob Gronkowski finished with 1,327 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns and his counterpart, Aaron Hernandez, finished with 910 yards and seven touchdowns in 2011.

Unfortunately, the Patriots will be short-handed for the next few weeks after Hernandez suffered a low ankle sprain in the team’s crushing loss to Arizona. He’ll miss four to six weeks.

New England is currently a three point road underdog in its Week 3 matchup with Baltimore.

10:00 am – September 18, 2012

The Detroit Tigers, once -1800 favorites to win the American League Central, are now three games behind the White Sox for the division lead, including five games out of the AL Wild Card race.

ESPN’s playoff percentages, which lists the Tigers with just an 18.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, suggests that Detroit’s season might be over soon.

The odds say otherwise …

* * *

Updated AL Pennant Odds (5Dimes)

Texas Rangers +210
New York Yankees +350
Detroit Tigers +750
Baltimore Orioles +800
Oakland Athletics +800
Chicago White Sox +850
Los Angeles Angels +950
Tampa Bay Rays +1200

5:00 pm – September 17, 2012

If past performance on Monday Night Football was the only factor used in determining the point spread, the Atlanta Falcons would probably be listed as a fairly large underdog.

The Falcons, who are favored by three points over the Broncos, are 9-24 all-time on Monday night, including 0-3 under current head coach Mike Smith. All three of Atlanta’s appearances under Smith were against New Orleans, which outscored the Falcons by an average of 13 points per game.

4:45 pm – September 17, 2012

The Sports Memo has been keeping track of which college football teams receive the second-half kickoff first, a useful tool for those of you betting halftime lines. Of course, when we pointed it out on Saturday, it led to the obvious question:

“How frequently do teams that receive the second-half kickoff cover the spread?”

We don’t have historical results, but we did look through the first three weeks of this season. Overall, there isn’t much advantage to be had in the 101-game sample: 51 wins, 49 losses, one push. We’ll continue to monitor the results throughout the year, but we don’t view this as a profitable blind-betting opportunity.

4:30 pm – September 17, 2012

Not only did the Redskins suffer their first lost of the season in Week 2, they also lost two of their top defensive players, as well. Head coach Mike Shanahan announced that linebacker Brian Orakpo and defensive end Adam Carriker will miss the remainder of the season because of injuries.

That’s not good news for a team that has already given up 62 points through two weeks. Washington is currently a 4.5-point favorite against Cincinnati in Week 3.

3:45 pm – September 17, 2012

Teams with starting rookie quarterbacks didn’t fare well in Week 1, but were able to bounce back in Week 2, with three of the five winning outright as underdogs.

Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill each led their teams to victory, while Robert Griffin III and Brandon Weeden fell short in their games against St. Louis and Cincinnati, respectively.

Overall, the rookie-led teams went 3-1-1 ATS in Week 2.

Week 3 Lines:

Washington -4.5 vs. Cincinnati
Miami +2.5 vs. NY Jets
Cleveland +3 vs. Buffalo
Seattle +3.5 vs. Green Bay

3:00 pm – September 17, 2012

College football Week 4 line moves are listed below.

311 Clemson
312 Florida State -14.5 (opened: -12)

333 UMass
334 Miami (Ohio) -26.5 (-25)

343 Marshall -3 (pk)
344 Rice

349 Oregon State
350 UCLA -10 (-11.5)

357 LSU -19 (-17.5)
358 Auburn

359 Miami
360 Georgia Tech -13.5 (-12)

365 Connecticut -1 (+1)
366 Western Michigan

383 Utah
384 Arizona State -7.5 (-5.5)

387 Air Force -10.5 (-13)
388 UNLV

391 FAU
392 Alabama -50.5 (-52)

393 Southern Miss
394 Western Kentucky -4 (-2.5)

397 Louisville -13 (-11.5)
398 FIU

2:30 pm – September 17, 2012

We’re three weeks through the college football season, and only five BCS teams still have perfect 3-0 against-the-spread records, including Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Northwestern, Purdue and UCLA.

Week 4 matchups:

Georgia (-13.5) vs. Miami
Texas Tech (Bye Week)
Northwestern (NL) vs. South Dakota
Purdue (Bye Week)
UCLA (-11.5) vs. Oregon State

1:45 pm – September 17, 2012

Prior to Week 1, New Orleans was listed as low as 13-to-1 (YouWager) to win the Super Bowl.

Now, after losing their first two games against Washington and Carolina, respectively, the Saints are listed around 43-to-1 at most offshore books, including as high as 60-to-1 at the LVH in Las Vegas.

* * *

5Dimes odds to win Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers +550
Houston Texans +635
New England Patriots +650
Green Bay Packers +725
Philadelphia Eagles +1200
Denver Broncos +1400
Baltimore Ravens +1500
Atlanta Falcons +1700
San Diego Chargers +2000
Pittsburgh Steelers +2200
Dallas Cowboys +2800
New York Giants +3000
Chicago Bears +3200
New Orleans Saints +4300
Carolina Panthers +5000
New York Jets +5000
Detroit Lions +5200
Seattle Seahawks +5300
Cincinnati Bengals +7500
Washington Redskins +8000
Arizona Cardinals +8500
Buffalo Bills +9000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12500
Kansas City Chiefs +15000
Indianapolis Colts +17500
Oakland Raiders +22500
Miami Dolphins +25000
Tennessee Titans +27500
Minnesota Vikings +30000
St Louis Rams +30000
Jacksonville Jaguars +32500
Cleveland Browns +60000

1:00 pm – September 17, 2012

Updated USA Today Poll, with corresponding futures odds from the LVH:

1. Alabama (+200)
2. LSU (+300)
3. Oregon (+800)
4. Florida State (+800)
5. Oklahoma (+1500)
6. Georgia (+1000)
7. West Virginia (+2000)
8. South Carolina (+3000)
9. Clemson (+5000)
10. Texas (+3000)
11. Stanford (+4000)
12. USC (+1200)
13. Kansas State (+10000)
14. Florida (+4000)
15. Notre Dame (+2500)
16. TCU (+10000)
17. Michigan (+20000)
18. Louisville (+10000)
19. UCLA (+30000)
20. Michigan State (+10000)
21. Arizona (+30000)
22. Nebraska (+20000)
23. Mississippi State (+20000)
24. Wisconsin (+30000)
25. Oklahoma State (+10000)

12:15 pm – September 17, 2012

A few days after Alabama defeated Arkansas 52-0, easily covering the 20.5-point spread, oddsmakers opened the Crimson Tide as 51-point favorites against Florida Atlantic.

According to al.com, which researched Alabama’s past point spreads, it’s the highest the Crimson Tide have been favored by since at least 1985.

11:30 am – September 17, 2012

Peyton Manning, who was his usual self in Denver’s Week 1 victory over Pittsburgh, has been one of the better prime time quarterbacks since joining the league in 1998—especially when playing on Monday Night.

Overall, Manning is 11-3 straight up and 10-4 ATS on MNF. He has covered the spread in nine of his last 10 starts, with the only loss coming in a 31-21 defeat to Tennessee as a 4-point underdog in 2008.

Tonight, Manning and the Broncos take on the Falcons as 3-point road underdogs. It’s worth noting that Manning’s team has been an underdog just four times on MNF, posting a 1-3 straight up and ATS record.

10:45 am – September 17, 2012

A $100 bet placed on each of the Week 2 home underdogs, which finished 5-1 straight up and ATS, would have netted bettors around 5.75 units.

* * *

Indianapolis (+120) over Minnesota
Carolina (+135) over New Orleans
Miami (+105) over Oakland
Seattle (+150) over Dallas
St. Louis (+165) over Washington
Jacksonville (-100) loss to Houston

10:00 am – September 17, 2012

The consensus picks for the LVH SuperContest went 2-2 yesterday and are now just 3-6 overall. Both Dallas and New England, which were chosen by a combined 404 contestants, lost outright as 3- and 13.5-point favorites, respectively.

The loss to Arizona marked the first time the Patriots were defeated in a home opener with Tom Brady under center.

Monday Night’s matchup between Atlanta and Denver includes the final play of the Week 2 consensus. A total of 157 out of 745 participants sided with the Falcons as 3-point home favorites.

5:00 pm – September 14, 2012

The point spread in the game between Arizona State and Missouri has seen plenty of movement, dropping down to Mizzou -3 after the Tigers opened as 8.5-point favorites.

The line itself has sparked an interesting discussion in the BTB Forum, where members are attempting to dissect the movement. (It has a lot to do with the status of Mizzou QB James Franklin.)

4:15 pm – September 14, 2012

After an impressive Week 1 victory over Cincinnati, Baltimore climbed seven spots into the No. 2 position in BTB’s Public Perception Index.

RISING

Redskins
Ravens
Jets
49ers
Broncos

FALLING

Steelers
Saints
Eagles
Bills
Dolphins

3:30 pm – September 14, 2012

Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel injured his knee in the Cougars’ victory over Eastern Washington last week and remains questionable for their game against UNLV tonight.

In Tuel’s absence, redshirt sophomore Connor Halliday—who took all the snaps with the first team in Thursday’s practice—could make his second career start.

Washington State opened as an 11-point favorite. However, the line has since dropped to eight.

2:45 pm – September 14, 2012

The New York Jets received some unfortunate news this afternoon.

Darrelle Revis, who suffered a concussion in the team’s opener against Buffalo, has been ruled out for the Jets’ game against the Steelers on Sunday.

New York, which is currently a 4.5-point road underdog, has only one win in Pittsburgh in franchise history, a 22-17 victory in December 2010.

2:00 pm – September 14, 2012

Colin Cowherd’s “Blazing Five” selections this weekend. (He went 2-3 with his picks last week.)

Ohio State -16.5 vs. California
Rams +3.5 vs. Redskins
Seahawks +3.5 vs. Cowboys
Colts +1.5 vs. Vikings
Steelers -5 vs. Jets

1:30 pm – September 14, 2012

Duke football continues its battle with injuries.

According to Steve Wiseman of The Herald-Sun, starters Justin Foxx (defensive end) and August Campbell (safety) will miss Saturday’s game against North Carolina Central.

This just added to the list of starters that Duke has already been forced to play without, leaving head coach David Cutcliffe baffled. ”I’ve never been part of any football team challenged like this,” Cutcliffe said following practice on Thursday.

Even so, the injuries shouldn’t be a factor this week, as the Blue Devils are 37.5-point favorites over the Eagles.

12:45 pm – September 14, 2012

The Steelers-Jets point spread continues to drop. In the LVH SuperBook’s look-ahead lines released last week, Pittsburgh was listed as a 7.5-point favorite. However, the number has since fallen to 4.5 at most offshore books.

After failing to score a preseason touchdown, New York seems to be getting some support after scoring 48 points in its season-opening win against the Bills. But it’s worth noting that in the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers have been a strong bounce-back team, posting an 18-6 SU record—including eight straight wins—and 15-9 mark against the spread.

Pittsburgh last lost back-to-back games in December 2009.

12:00 pm – September 14, 2012

When the LVH Superbook released NFL Week 2 look-ahead lines last Saturday, a few games that stood out were the Panthers and Saints listed as a pick ‘em and the Patriots -12.5 against the Cardinals.

Since then, however, many of the lines have moved. Carolina is now a 2.5-point underdog and New England is a 13.5-point favorite.

Below is a look at the biggest moves so far for Week 2. (Opening line in parentheses.)

Vikings
Colts +1 (-2.5)

Cowboys
Seahawks +3 (-1)

Redskins
Rams +3.5 (-2)

Jets
Steelers -5 (-7.5)

Lions
49ers -6.5 (-4)

11:15 am – September 14, 2012

The BTB Forum is holding a college football and NFL “Last Man Standing” contest, which is free to join. The top prize hasn’t been announced just yet, but rest assured, it will be crappy and probably unexciting.

There will be 3-4 lines released each week for both the NFL and college football. The lines will be posted at least 48 hours in advance of the games. You are required to pick one game against the spread, and the last unbeaten will be declared the winner.

Registration will end tonight at 11:59 p.m. ET. Click HERE to sign up.

10:45 am – September 14, 2012

What do Mark Cuban and James Worthy have in common? They both believe that the Lakers look much better on paper than they will on the court.

“The Lakers have done this before,” Cuban said in a recent interview with Sporting News. “Remember Gary Payton, Karl Malone and Kobe and Shaq were all together, and it didn’t work.”

The Lakers saw their NBA Championship odds move to 3-to-1 after signing Dwight Howard in the offseason. At 5Dimes, they currently have the second-best odds to win at 2.5-to-1.

* * *

Odds to win NBA Championship

10:30 am – September 14, 2012

The season of Great Expectations is fizzling out fast. A week after losing to UL-Monroe, Arkansas will now take on defending national champion Alabama without its best player.

Senior QB Tyler Wilson hasn’t—and reportedly won’t be—cleared to play against the Tide on Saturday. Wilson suffered a head injury in the first half of the loss against Monroe and didn’t return. After throwing passes on Wednesday, he didn’t practice on Thursday.

Alabama is listed as a 20-point favorite at most offshore books.

10:00 am – September 14, 2012

Miami is a 31.5-point favorite against Bethune-Cookman on Saturday after last week’s embarrassing 52-13 loss at Kansas State. In eight games, the Hurricanes have outscored MEAC opponents by an average of 50-6.

In its season opener, Miami rushed for 208 yards in a win over Boston College. However, the running game took a big step back against the Wildcats, as they rushed 29 times for just 40 yards against a sub-par defense.

The Hurricanes open ACC play next week at Georgia Tech, and while last week’s outcome was alarming, there’s still plenty of time to get back on track and work out the kinks against an inferior opponent. Don’t be surprised if the Canes win this one by 40-plus.

5:00 pm – September 13, 2012

The Carolina Panthers are playing the revenge card prior to their game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

New Orleans, which defeated the Panthers 45-17 in the most recent meeting, has been accused by Panthers players of trying to break records and run up the score.

The Saints have made no attempts at a denial.

“When it got into the third and fourth quarter, [Darren] Sproles was close to the record of most all-purpose yards in history. Jimmy Graham was close to most yards for a tight end in history,” Brees told reporters. “So were we trying to get those guys some touches, some yards, in order to break those records? Yeah, absolutely. Who wouldn’t?”

The Saints are currently 2.5-point road favorites, but the Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

4:15 pm – September 13, 2012

Three of five NFL rookie quarterbacks will be looking over their shoulders this season. But which of them will be the first to get benched?

From odds released today by Bovada:
Russell Wilson (SEA) 4/5
Brandon Weeden (CLE) 5/4
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 5/1
Note: Must be pulled from a game when losing or not start.

The most likely quarterback to get the hook is unquestionably Wilson, who struggled in the season opener and has a capable backup—Matt Flynn—who the team acquired in the offseason. Miami will likely stay the course with Tannehill, and we don’t suspect the Browns will switch back to Colt McCoy anytime soon.

3:15 pm – September 13, 2012

It’s almost impossible to talk about Sunday Night’s game between the 49ers and Lions without mentioning the “handshake,” the awkward, hysterical kerfuffle between Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz following last year’s meeting.

So, will the two coaches be civil this time around?

From Bovada:

Will Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz shake hands or hug after the game?
Yes -400
No +250

2:45 pm – September 13, 2012

The Michigan-Massachusetts point spread, currently at 45.5, has already received plenty of attention—especially after the Minutemen were outscored 82-6 through their first two games.

Brady Hoke, in an interview with the “Stoney and Bill Show,” called the line “ridiculous. ”

“All you’ve got to do is go back two years, and it was 42-37 here in Ann Arbor,” Hoke said. ”That gets your attention.”

Michigan is 0-2 ATS in its first two games against Alabama and Air Force.

2:00 pm – September 13, 2012

Darrelle Revis, who suffered a concussion in New York’s season opener against Buffalo, still isn’t cleared for practice. In Wednesday’s press conference, Rex Ryan said that any decision as to whether or not Revis will play against Pittsburgh will likely be made on Saturday.

The Jets are currently 5-point underdogs.

1:15 pm – September 13, 2012

Seattle failed to cover as a 1-point road favorite in its season opening loss to Arizona. Lucky for the Seahawks, they return home in Week 2, where they are 54-43-5 ATS since 2000.

Seattle is currently a 3-point home underdog against the Cowboys.

12:45 pm – September 13, 2012

Oregon, Stanford, USC and Washington State are four Pac-12 teams that share a similar policy when it comes to disclosing injuries.

They don’t.

Washington coach Steve Sarkisian, apparently fed up with it, said his program will adopt a similar policy and will become tight-lipped going forward.

“We’re not going to comment on injuries anymore. I’m not, no one in our organization is,” Sarkisian said. “It’s just a competitive disadvantage for us when other teams don’t, and we do, so that’s going to be the road we take.”

The Huskies are currently 27-point favorites against Portland State.

12:15 pm – September 13, 2012

Odds of the favorite winning each BCS Conference, courtesy of 5Dimes.

* * *

12:00 pm – September 13, 2012

On his radio show Thursday morning, ESPN’s Colin Cowherd offered a brief—and extremely simplified—NFL betting theory.

He called it, “Who’s more desperate?”

The theory, he said, only applies when two good or very good teams are playing each other, and at least one of them is in more of a “must-win” situation. The three teams he identified in Week 2 that will be good bets based on this theory?

Packers -5 at home against Bears (Thursday Night Football)
Steelers -5 at home against Jets
Seahawks +3 at home against Cowboys

Each of those teams is 0-1, and they’re playing pretty good opponents that are all 1-0. Hence, the 0-1 teams should be more “desperate.”

It’s questionable how much true “desperation” teams have this early in the season, but the theory is at least worth considering. We’ll get our first look tonight with Green Bay taking on Chicago.

11:15 am – September 13, 2012

LVH SuperContest Week 2 lines are out:

Bears at Packers -6
Buccaneers at Giants -7.5
Cardinals at Patriots -13.5
Vikings -1 at Colts
Saints -2.5 at Panthers
Chiefs at Bills -3
Ravens at Eagles -2.5
Raiders -2.5 at Dolphins
Browns at Bengals -7
Texans -7 at Jaguars
Cowboys -3 at Seahawks
Redskins -3 at Rams
Jets at Steelers -6
Titans at Chargers -6
Lions at 49ers -6.5
Broncos at Falcons -3

10:45 am – September 13, 2012

When offshore sportsbooks first came out with odds to win the 2013 men’s basketball national championship back in April, Connecticut was listed at 90-to-1.

Now, with the recent news that Jim Calhoun will be stepping down as head coach, the Huskies’ odds have since been taken off the board. In 26 seasons with the program, Calhoun led Connecticut to a 625-243 record and three national titles.

* * *

Odds to win 2013 national championship (via 5Dimes):

Kentucky +600
Indiana +750
Louisville +850
North Carolina +1000
UCLA +1200
Ohio State +1750
Kansas +2000
Syracuse +2000
Duke +2000
Arizona +2000

10:00 am – September 13, 2012

According to Dermot Hunt, Floyd Mayweather Tweeted pictures of 46 betting slips from August 2010 to February 2012. During that span, he produced a 46-0 record with winnings that totaled an impressive $3,890,833.

Look out, Billy Walters!

Unfortunately, Mayweather’s win streak came to an end this week when the Lions failed to cover a 6-point first half spread against the Rams. Mayweather will apparently be posting his betting picks on MemoMeMore.com in the future, but if you’re wanting the plays before the games start, you’ll probably be out of luck.

Then again …

7:00 pm – September 12, 2012

If you’re looking for a good NFL Survivor Pool breakdown, the fine folks at Team Rankings have provided one.

Their Week 1 selection—Houston at home against Miami—was a stress-free winner.

For Week 2, they like (in order):

Giants at home over Buccaneers
Steelers at home over Jets
Bengals at home over Browns

The third choice happens to be what we suggested earlier this summer in our NFL Survivor Pool Strategy Guide, which attempted to set you up to take at least a touchdown favorite in every week. (We saved the Giants for a Week 5 home matchup with Cleveland.)

6:00 pm – September 12, 2012

Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, how was Robert Griffin III able to have so much success in his first career start?

The theory has been that coach Mike Shanahan gave RG3 a lot of quick, “easy” passes—bubble screens and underneath routes—to help ease him into the NFL game.

Not so, says Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com in an excellent piece at Grantland.

On a lot of plays, even Shanahan didn’t know for sure whether it would be a run or pass when the ball was snapped. He actually gave Griffin III the option to either hand off or run a quick WR screen based off what the defense was showing.

From the Grantland article, which is definitely worth a full read:

This idea, known in coaching circles as “packaging plays,” is the newest and most effective development in football. By blending passes and screens with running plays, the quarterback can decide who gets the ball based on what the defense does, and in turn, turn the defense’s own decision into its own fatal mistake.

It’s what Art Briles did with RG3 at Baylor, and it’s just the latest development that makes this game so difficult for defenses.

Griffin III and the Redskins are 3-point favorites at St. Louis this weekend, and their futures odds to win the NFC East are on the rise. We’d be hesitant laying a field goal on the road with Washington, but—after reading this piece—it’s not one where we’re dying to take the underdog either.

5:00 pm – September 12, 2012

An interesting tweet from Chase Stuart of footballperspective.com:

If you’re curious, these rookie/sophomore quarterbacks were also 2-8 against the spread. And that drops to 1-7 if you eliminate the Jags-Vikings game, where one of them had to cover and win.

4:30 pm – September 12, 2012

Week 2 lines are posted for BTB’s NFL Contest (sponsored by YouWager):

Bears/Packers (-6)
Buccaneers/Giants (-7.5)
Cardinals/Patriots (-14)
Vikings (-1.5)/Colts
Saints (-2.5)/Panthers
Chiefs/Bills (-3)
Ravens/Eagles (-2.5)
Raiders (-2.5)/Dolphins
Browns/Bengals (-7)
Texas (-7.5)/Jaguars
Cowboys (-3)/Seahawks
Redskins (-3)/Rams
Jets/Steelers (-6)
Titans/Chargers (-6)
Lions/49ers (-7)
Broncos/Falcons (-3)

4:00 pm – September 12, 2012

Major League Baseball released its tentative 2013 schedule, which includes Houston’s transition to the American League. The schedule also includes the return of the World Baseball Classic, which means there will be even more baseball to bet on next year.

Here are a few notables:

Cincinnati will open its season against an American League team for the first time.
Don Mattingly makes his return to New York in mid-June for a series against the Yankees.
Ozzie Guillen returns to Chicago for a series against the White Sox in late May.

3:15 pm – September 12, 2012

Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe thinks Florida State is laying too many points against his Demon Deacons on Satuday.

“I think we’re about a 150-point underdog,” Grobe said, when asked about the point spread. “[My wife], she can’t wait to get the USA Today and see what the spread is. I mean, it about knocked me off my chair when she told me what the spread was.

“There’s been a lot of money bet. I thought, ‘Man, that’s too many points.’ But apparently the nation doesn’t think that that’s quite enough.”

Hopefully Grobe’s wife isn’t monitoring the Don Best screen. Florida State opened -24 but is currently listed at -28 at most offshore sportsbooks.

2:30 pm – September 12, 2012

According to the Times-Picayune, four LSU players have been declared academically ineligible for the remainder of the season. Linebacker Tahj Jones is the biggest loss, considering he is the only starter. Other suspensions include Tyler Edwards, D.J. Welter and Evan Washington.

LSU is currently a 42.5-point favorite against Idaho.

2:15 pm – September 12, 2012

An updated list of Super Bowl futures odds are listed below. It’s interesting to note that the four NFC East teams (Eagles, Cowboys, Giants and Redskins) are all within the top 17 spots, whereas two divisions—the AFC South and NFC West—only have one team apiece in that range.

Of the 10 teams with the worst odds, all but the Vikings and Cardinals lost their season opener.

* * *

Courtesy of Bovada:

New England Patriots 5/1
Houston Texans 7/1
San Francisco 49ers 15/2
Green Bay Packers 8/1
Baltimore Ravens 12/1
Chicago Bears 12/1
Denver Broncos 12/1
Atlanta Falcons 16/1
Philadelphia Eagles 16/1
Dallas Cowboys 18/1
New Orleans Saints 22/1
New York Giants 25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 25/1
San Diego Chargers 25/1
Detroit Lions 30/1
New York Jets 33/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle Seahawks 60/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60/1
Carolina Panthers 66/1
Cincinnati Bengals 75/1
Kansas City Chiefs 75/1
Arizona Cardinals 80/1
Buffalo Bills 100/1
Oakland Raiders 100/1
Tennessee Titans 125/1
Indianapolis Colts 150/1
Minnesota Vikings 150/1
Cleveland Browns 200/1
Miami Dolphins 200/1
St. Louis Rams 200/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 250/1

1:45 pm – September 12, 2012

According to Penn State’s Twitter account, starting receiver Shawney Kersey has left the school for personal reasons. Kersey, a junior, had six receptions for 44 yards through the first two games. He’ll likely be replaced by freshman Trevor Williams.

1:00 pm – September 12, 2012

The NFL replacement refs had a rough opening week.

In addition to calling 29 pass interference penalties—one shy of the amount of PI calls made the last three years combined—they also gave a slight edge to home teams in terms of overall penalties. Of course, that only equates to roughly 1.5 more penalties per game, on average, and the sample is a small one.

Like everything else ref-oriented, just something to keep an eye on going forward.

12:15 pm – September 12, 2012

Order has been restored.

With no more Savannah State-vs.-FBS games scheduled, the largest college football point spread this week is Oregon -51.5 vs. Tennessee Tech. In previous weeks, Savannah State—better known as the “worst college football program in the country”—was listed as underdogs in the mid to upper 60s. (They opened +70.5 last week at Florida State.)

The most interesting line of the “added” games released on Wednesday: Iowa -10 vs. Northern Iowa. The Hawkeyes looked dreadful in their first two games (one win, one loss), and the Panthers played Wisconsin tough in the season opener before falling 26-21. Is Iowa on upset alert?

11:30 am – September 12, 2012

After the 49ers and Ravens won convincingly against playoff teams in their season openers, the talk about a potential Harbaugh Super Bowl wasn’t far behind.

Odds to win Super Bowl:

San Francisco | +725
Baltimore | +1300

10:45 am – September 12, 2012

Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien is trying to avoid the punt at all costs. Through two games, the Nittany Lions have converted five of seven fourth-down attempts.

“Once we get really close to the 50, I’m pretty much not going to punt it,” O’Brien said in Tuesday’s news conference. “I’m just going to tell you that. Like, we’re going to go for it, unless it’s fourth and forever.”

This game plan is likely due to the fact that kicker Sam Ficken made just 1-of-5 field-goal attempts in Penn State’s 17-16 loss to Virginia.

The Nittany Lions (0-2) will try to pick up their first win of the season against Navy on Saturday. Penn State, which has seen both of its games go under, is currently a 5.5-point favorite with the total listed at 45.5.

10:00 am – September 12, 2012

ESPN reports that Notre Dame will join the Atlantic Coast Conference as a full member. The only sport that will not make the transition is football. However, the Fighting Irish will play five games annually against ACC opponents.

Notre Dame is 7-10 ATS the last 10 years against ACC teams.

5:00 pm – September 11, 2012

Our NFL Survivor Pool Strategy Guide says to go with the Bengals at home against the Browns this week, but if you’re looking to take the ultra-safe route, go with the Patriots at home against Arizona.

At -14, New England is by far the biggest favorite on the board. (It’s the only spread currently in double digits.) Plus, Tom Brady has never lost a home opener (9-0), and he’s 35-1 in his last 36 games at Gillette Stadium.

Everyone loves the NFL (and survivor pools) because there’s no such thing as a guarantee, but picking the Patriots to win this week is about as close as it gets.

4:30 pm – September 11, 2012

ESPN Stats & Info published its first set of Conference Power Rankings, which will be available after each week for the rest of the season. Heading into Week 3, the Big 12 ranks in first, just ahead of the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC.

All 11 FBS conferences are included in the rankings, which are listed below. For comparison, we’ve also included each conference’s combined record ATS.

1. Big 12 | 11-5
2. SEC | 12-13
3. Pac-12 | 7-16
4. ACC | 9-12-2
5. Big Ten | 11-13
6. Big East | 6-8-1
7. WAC | 9-3
8. MWC | 11-6
9. MAC | 13-13
10. C-USA | 9-13
11. Sun Belt | 9-10

3:45 pm – September 11, 2012

In an attempt to shake things up, Colorado head coach Jon Embree announced that the Buffaloes would use two quarterbacks in their game against Fresno State on Saturday.

Although he made it clear that Jordan Webb would remain the starter, he also stated that Connor Wood would see some playing time. “We want to get Connor’s feet wet, give him some action,” Embree said.

If one thing is for certain, it’s that Colorado needs to change its approach. The Buffaloes lost outright as 6- and 21-point favorites in their first two games against Colorado State and Sacramento State, respectively.

Colorado is currently a 14-point road underdog against the Bulldogs.

3:15 pm – September 11, 2012

Indiana quarterback Tre Roberson is expected to miss five to six months after breaking his leg in Saturday’s 45-6 victory over Massachusetts. Moving into the starting role will be Cameron Coffman, who threw for 159 yards and a touchdown after Roberson went down in the first half.

The Hoosiers are currently 2.5-point home favorites against Ball State.

2:45 pm – September 11, 2012

Arkansas let down plenty of college football bettors with its Week 2 loss to Louisiana-Monroe. But for the lucky few that placed a wager at SportsBettingOnline.ag, they can breathe a sigh of relief.

The offshore sportsbook understands how frustrating it can be to watch the then-No. 8 team in the country blow a 21-point lead before losing in overtime as a 30-point favorite.

“The loss was unbelievable, and to profit from it really doesn’t sit well with us,” the sportsbook stated in an email to its clients. “That’s why we’re refunding every single player who dropped money on Arkansas to win. It’s the right thing to do and we’d be shocked if other online sports books don’t follow our lead.”

2:00 pm – September 11, 2012

The ‘over’ hit in nine of 16 games in Week 1, which saw five teams score 40 or more points. Eight of 16 games finished with a combined score of 50 or more points.

Total points scored (Week 1):

70-79: 2
60-69: 2
50-59: 4
40-49: 4
39 or less: 4

1:15 pm – September 11, 2012

According to TeamRankings.com, the LVH SuperContest only saw 10 of 745 contestants finish with a perfect 5-0 record in Week 1. Twenty-eight contestants finished 0-5.

12:45 pm – September 11, 2012

Massachusetts hasn’t fared well in its first season in the FBS, scoring just six points in two games while giving a combined 82 points against Connecticut and Indiana. Unfortunately, things won’t get much easier in Week 3.

The Minutemen are listed as 45.5-point underdogs against Michigan. If you’re feeling bold, you could place a $100 bet on the UMass moneyline, which would yield a return of $65,000. Oddly enough, the Minutemen played the Wolverines tough in their only previous meeting, a 42-37 loss in 2010.

12:00 pm – September 11, 2012

Detroit is three games back in the AL Central and five games behind in the Wild Card race, but oddsmakers still list the Tigers with the third-best odds to win the AL Pennant. Texas, meanwhile, continues to roll and maintains its position as the favorite to win both the AL Pennant (+220) and World Series championship (+400).

11:45 am – September 11, 2012

Even without Stephen Strasburg in the rotation, Washington remains the favorite to claim the National League Pennant. The Nationals are +220 favorites at 5Dimes, just ahead of Cincinnati (+250) and San Francisco (+500).

Pittsburgh, which hasn’t even been to the playoffs since 1992, is currently a 26-to-1 longshot to win the NL Pennant.

11:15 am – September 11, 2012

It was a tough opening week for the contestants in the LVH Supercontest, who combined for a record of 1648-2072. The top five teams based on the consensus went a dismal 1-4 ATS.

10:45 am – September 11, 2012

Some of the online gambling domains that were seized in Maryland in 2011 have been purchased by David Gzesh, an attorney in Nevada and former CEO of Truepokerwon.com and President of Yatahay poker network.

According to Hartley Henderson of the Offshore Gaming Association, the state of Kentucky once attempted to seize both of those sites, as well as many more, claiming they were in violation of state law.

Notable purchases: Bookmaker.com, Betmaker.com, Doylesroom.com and BetEd.com.

10:30 am – September 11, 2012

Buffalo and Washington were involved in arguably two of the more surprising results from Week 1 in the NFL. The Bills, who some pegged as one of the most improved teams, lost in blowout fashion against the Jets, while the Redskins upset the Saints on the road.

Now, as quickly as bettors jumped on the Buffalo wagon, they’re jumping off.

The Bills saw their Super Bowl future odds fall from a respectable 70-to-1 in preseason to 150-to-1. As for Washington, its futures odds improved from 90-to-1 to 50-to-1 after Robert Griffin III picked apart New Orleans’ defense for 40 points.

10:00 am – September 11, 2012

Andy Murray became the first British man to win a Grand Slam championship in singles in 76 years after defeating Novak Djokovic in the U.S. Open final on Monday. Murray, who also won the gold medal in the 2012 Olympics, was 0-4 in major finals prior to the match.

5:00 pm – September 10, 2012

Nothing good came out of Buffalo’s season opening loss to New York, including a knee injury suffered by Fred Jackson that could keep the running back out at least three weeks. Without Jackson, C.J. Spiller, who finished with a career-best 169 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, will take over the starting role.

Worth noting: Wideout David Nelson will miss the rest of the season after tearing his right ACL Sunday.

Buffalo is currently a 3-point home favorite against Kansas City in Week 2.

4:30 pm – September 10, 2012

Las Vegas casino mogul Steve Wynn won $20 million in his slander case against Joe Francis, founder of “Girls Gone Wild” who claimed that Wynn once tried to kill him over gambling debt.

From the Las Vegas Sun:

Witnesses disputed Francis’ claims during a four-day trial, including Grammy winning record producer Quincy Jones, who Francis said told him about Wynn’s threats and showed him a stack of emails that contained them.
Wynn vehemently denied that.
In siding with Wynn, the jury determined that there was clear and convincing evidence that Francis slandered the casino mogul and knew his allegations were false when he made them.

4:21 pm – September 10, 2012

The Atlanta Falcons just announced they lost starting cornerback Brent Grimes for the season with an Achilles injury.

From Pro Football Talk:

It’s not ideal for Atlanta, obviously, but they do still have Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel to plug in at corner. It’s a step down from Grimes, to be sure, but things could be worse.

The Falcons, who could soon be viewed as a Top 5 offense in the NFL, were already a good ‘over’ candidate heading into 2012. Their 40-24 win at Kansas City yesterday soared past the total of 43, and now their Monday Night home game against Denver has an over/under of 51.

4:15 pm – September 10, 2012

Notable college football Week 3 line moves:

Texas A&M -14 (opened: -10.5)
SMU

Texas -10.5 (-12)
Ole Miss

Arizona State
Missouri -7 (-8.5)

Miami (Ohio)
Boise State -20.5 (-19)

Western Michigan
Minnesota -2.5 (-4)

Bowling Green
Toledo -3.5 (-6.5)

Florida
Tennessee -3 (pk)

Colorado State
San Jose State -10.5 (-12.5)

Ball State
Indiana -2 (-3.5)

Western Kentucky
Kentucky -7 (-5.5)

3:45 pm – September 10, 2012

The U.S. Open men’s tennis final between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic is set to begin soon. Djokovic, who lost to Murray in the Olympic semifinals at Wimbledon, is currently listed as a sizable favorite.

3:30 pm – September 10, 2012

The New York Yankees, battling to stay in first place in the AL East, will likely be without Mark Teixeira for the rest of the season. Teixeira returned from a 10-day absence on Saturday, but aggravated a calf injury on the final play of the game.

The Yankees hold a game advantage over the Orioles in the divisional race.

2:45 pm – September 10, 2012

Dennis Allen, one of eight new head coaches in 2012, will make his debut tonight when Oakland hosts San Diego. And if Sunday’s results have any indication on how well his team will perform, expect to see a Chargers win.

The seven other ‘new’ head coaches combined for a 1-6 record, with only Greg Schiano (Tampa Bay) claiming a victory. The ATS results were slightly better at 3-3, but overall, the teams lost by an average of nine points per game.

The Raiders are currently 1-point favorites at 5Dimes.

2:00 pm – September 10, 2012

No. 4 Oregon received some unfortunate news on Sunday.

A day after the Ducks defeated Fresno State 42-25, the team found out that starting free safety John Boyett would need season-ending surgery to repair partial tears in both patellar tendons. Boyett, a preseason All-American, played in the season opener and recorded an interception before sitting out against the Bulldogs.

1:30 pm – September 10, 2012

If losing the season opener to San Francisco wasn’t bad enough for Aaron Rodgers, now he’ll have to wear an Alex Smith jersey for the remainder of the week.

According to TMZ Sports, Rodgers convinced Boyz II Men to perform the National Anthem for Sunday’s game. The only catch? If the 49ers won, Rodgers would have to wear Smith’s jersey for the rest of the week. If the Packers won, Nathan Morris would have to sport Rodgers’ jersey.

1:00 pm – September 10, 2012

According to David Purdum, Nevada sportsbooks won $7.2M on baseball wagers in July, which is up from $138K from July, 2011.

12:30 pm – September 10, 2012

The Pac-12 shook things up in the Top 25 polls over the weekend as three of its unranked teams knocked off ranked opponents. Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA defeated then-No. 18 Oklahoma State, No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 16 Nebraska, respectively.

Teams in the top 25 poll, by conference:

SEC - 6
Big 12 - 5
Pac-12 - 5
Big Ten - 3
ACC - 3
Big East - 1
Other - 2

12:00 pm – September 10, 2012

The New Jersey state attorney general is saying the four pro sports leagues and the NCAA have no legal standing in their attempt to sue New Jersey for trying to allow sports betting within its borders.

Jeffrey Chiesa laughed at the leagues’ notion that widespread sports gambling would compromise the integrity of the games, saying, “The leagues are well aware that there has been widespread gambling on their matches for decades.”

From NorthJersey.com:

Chiesa referred to various legal precedents suggesting that the leagues, to prove standing in the case, would have to show that they will suffer “a concrete and imminent ‘injury-of-fact’” that is directly traceable to the state’s actions.
That standard cannot be met, Chiesa argues, in part because the sports leagues have thrived in spite of illegal betting levels that have grown to an estimated $ 380 billion annually. Chiesa added that there is “no reason to believe that sports wagering in New Jersey will cause harm to the league ever, let alone the imminent, ‘certainly impending harm’” that must be shown to obtain injunctive relief.
The allegation that the arrival of sports betting in New Jersey will increase the likelihood of game-fixing also fails, Chiesa asserts, because such a scandal would be caused not by a bookmaker but by the Leagues’ ‘own players and employees.’

11:15 am – September 10, 2012

The five NFL rookie quarterbacks that started on Sunday went a combined 1-4 overall, with the only victory coming in Robert Griffin III’s impressive debut for the Redskins, who upset New Orleans 40-32 as a 7-point underdog.

Other rookie QB’s had no such luck. Ryan Tannehill went 20-for-36 for 219 yards and three interceptions in the Dolphins’ 30-10 loss to the Texans; Brandon Weeden threw four interceptions in his Browns debut (a 17-16 loss to the Eagles); Andrew Luck threw three interceptions in the Colts 41-21 loss to the Bears; and Russell Wilson (153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was largely ineffective for the Seahawks in a 20-16 loss.

Overall, rookie QB’s went 2-3 ATS and threw 11 interceptions.

10:45 am – September 10, 2012

The most popular consensus plays in the LVH SuperContest (Detroit, New England, New Orleans and Philadelphia) didn’t fare well over the weekend.

Washington, picked by only 31 of 745 participants, was the most surprising result in Week 1. The Redskins defeated the Saints as 7-point road underdogs in Robert Griffin III’s NFL debut. The overall ‘consensus’ plays are 7-7.

The majority like the Ravens and Raiders in tonight’s matchups.

10:15 am – September 10, 2012

Turns out, Floyd Mayweather is a mortal.

For the first time in his sports betting career, Mayweather posted a losing ticket on Twitter. He placed a $ 100,000 first-half wager on the Lions -6 against the Rams, but failed to cover when Detroit entered the locker room down 13-10.

Don’t worry, though: Mayweather still (of course!) had a winning day. He posted winning tickets on the Falcons and Patriots that paid $ 350,000.

Just another day at the office for the world’s best sports gambler.

9:43 am – September 10, 2012

Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson is being described as “day-to-day” after suffering several hits to the head in the Razorbacks’ stunning overtime loss to Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday.

Wilson sat out all of the second half, during which the Warhawks erased a 21-7 halftime deficit to win 34-31. His replacement, freshman Brandon Allen, completed only 6 of 20 passes for 85 yards. It was a rough day for the Razorbacks, and it didn’t get much better on Sunday when the polls were released.

Arkansas fell from No. 8 to unranked, the second-largest drop in college football history. Only Michigan, which fell from No. 5 to unranked in 2007 following a loss to Appalachian State, was worse.

11:37 am – September 9, 2012

A quick note on the news wire: It will be Monday-through-Friday only in the short term. We’ll look to expand to 7 days per week in the near future, however.

3:24 pm – September 8, 2012

Who says the most public teams in the NFL aren’t the best ones to bet on? Listed below are ATS records for every NFL team over the past six seasons (along with last season’s record in parentheses).

Notice the teams at the top, compared to the teams at the bottom. Perhaps Peyton Manning can help Denver pick up the pace.

Packers: 58-35-3 (11-5)
Patriots: 55-38-3 (9-7)
Falcons: 54-41-1 (7-8-1)
Saints: 53-42-1 (12-4)
Titans: 52-43-1 (7-8-1)
Giants: 50-43-3 (8-7-1)
49ers: 48-43-5 (12-3-1)
Chargers: 49-44-3 (6-10)
Colts: 49-44-3 (6-10)
Eagles: 50-45-1 (8-8)
Bengals: 48-44-4 (8-6-2)
Bills: 48-45-3 (6-9-1)
Ravens: 49-46-1 (8-7-1)
Cardinals: 49-47 (9-7)
Chiefs: 48-47-1 (9-7)
Jets: 48-47-1 (6-10)
Steelers: 46-48-2 (7-9)
Texans: 45-47-4 (9-5-2)
Bears: 45-48-3 (8-8)
Cowboys: 45-49-2 (5-10-1)
Panthers: 45-49-2 (9-7)
Dolphins: 44-48-4 (9-6-1)
Raiders: 45-50-1 (9-6-1)
Seahawks: 44-49-3 (9-6-1)
Jaguars: 44-51-1 (7-8-1)
Browns: 43-50-3 (7-7-2)
Lions: 42-49-5 (7-7-2)
Buccaneers: 43-51-2 (4-12)
Redskins: 39-47-10 (7-9)
Vikings: 40-51-5 (6-8-2)
Rams: 40-55-1 (3-12-1)
Broncos: 35-59-2 (7-9)

12:23 pm – September 8, 2012

Underrated aspect of today’s Nebraska-UCLA game: The amount of fans the Huskers will bring with them to the Rose Bowl.

Nebraska’s fanbase is widespread and is also notorious for traveling as well as any school in the country.

From the Omaha World-Herald:

UCLA said it was expecting more than 60,000 fans for today’s game, including Huskers. The Rose Bowl’s capacity is about 90,000.
Keith Mann, NU’s assistant athletic director for media relations, expects there will be more than 10,000 Big Red fans at the game.

Nebraska is currently a 5-point favorite in the matchup, which kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Huskers20, a member of the BTB Forum, offered an unbiased take on the game and likes Nebraska.

11:39 am – September 8, 2012

Not a big surprise here, but Connor Shaw won’t start for South Carolina today against East Carolina. The junior quarterback hurt his throwing shoulder in the team’s season-opening win at Vanderbilt last Thursday and was limited in practice all week.

Sophomore Dylan Thompson will start in his place. Shaw threw for only 67 yards last week but was a consistent threat with his legs.

Thompson has thrown only five career passes and went 0-for-3 against Vanderbilt.

The Gamecocks opened as 22- or 23-point favorites but are now -20.5 at BetOnline. Game kicks off at 12:20 p.m. ET.

10:39 am – September 8, 2012

ESPN has a weird way of doing math.

11:28 pm – September 7, 2012

Georgia’s defense will be without four starters for their game at Missouri on Saturday.

Cornerback Sanders Commings, safety Bacarri Rambo and linebackers Chase Vasser and Alec Ogletree will all be out for the Bulldogs, who are still 2-point favorites in Mizzou’s first-ever conference game as a member of the SEC.

From a report on ESPN.com:

The Bulldogs already were without suspended cornerback Sanders Commings and outside linebacker Chase Vasser, who are each serving two-game suspensions for offseason arrests. But UGA coach Mark Richt has been tight-lipped about the availability of Rambo and Ogletree for Saturday’s road contest, the first SEC game for the Tigers.
ESPN.com reported in March that Ogletree and Rambo faced multigame penalties for failing the university’s substance-abuse policy. Richt has yet to confirm that either player has been suspended or how long either must sit out.

11:10 pm – September 7, 2012

Texas A&M may have added two fictitious Big 12 championships to a résumé that apparently needed some less-than-truthful boosts, but the Aggies will probably have trouble earning any more “trophies” in 2012.

They were listed at just 60-to-1 to win the SEC and 350-to-1 for the BCS title.

From the Dallas Morning News:

The Aggies also now claim two more Big 12 titles to their 1998 crown, won with an overtime victory over Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. Up on a wall of honor at Kyle Field now are the years 1997 and 2010. In 1997, Texas A&M won the South Division but was beaten by Nebraska, 54-15, in the championship game. In 2010, the Aggies had a three-way tie for the South Division lead, with Oklahoma moving on to the title game.

5:20 pm – September 7, 2012

Yes, you can bet on everything. But you already knew that.

We’ll lay the chalk and go with the Aggies.

4:30 pm – September 7, 2012

With Saints winning appeal, suspensions are voided as Roger Goodell doesn’t have jurisdiction and Stephen Burbank does.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 7, 2012

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted that Roger Goodell’s bounty suspension of four Saints players — Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith, Scott Fujita and Anthony Hargrove — has been overturned, allowing them to play in Sunday’s game against the Redskins. With the news, William Hill adjusted the Saints from -7 to -7.5.

3:47 pm – September 7, 2012

LSU has fared well against non-conference opponents under Les Miles, posting a 28-0 regular-season record. Including bowl games, the Tigers are 32-1 with their only loss coming against Penn State in the Capital One Bowl in 2009.

The Tigers are currently a 24-point favorite against Washington on Saturday and finished 6-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite last year.

2:56 pm – September 7, 2012

Courtesy of @WagerMinds, the stat above is pretty interesting.

The average NFL Week 1 total the last 10 years has been 41.5, and this year’s average total is 44. However, six Week 1 games have totals of 45 or higher, which seems a bit inflated.

Do you like any of the following games to go under? …

Saints-Redskins 50
Patriots-Titans 47
Rams-Lions 45.5
49ers-Packers 47
Panthers-Bucs 47
Chargers-Raiders 46.5

2:30 pm – September 7, 2012

Billy Walters, known as the world’s best sports gambler, recently filed a lawsuit against Cooper’s Pick, LLC, an organization that has tried to use his likeness in an attempt to sell picks.

The Sporting News’s David Purdum reports that Cooper’s Pick doesn’t appear to be taking the lawsuit very seriously.

When reached by phone on Friday, a representative from Cooper’s Pick downplayed the suit before declining to comment.
Richart Ruddie, one of the 12 men named in the suit, was reached by email and offered to comment only if he and his staff were granted exclusive rights “to approve material used in publication, including, but not limited to: quoting, relating to, regarding alluding to, referring to, mentioning, discussing, writing talking about or in any other way through oral or written publication information about me personally or in my professional capacity.”
The consent form concluded with a warning of potential liquidated damages of $75,001.00 USD. (Editor’s note: After careful thought, the writer chuckled, then declined).

2:15 pm – September 7, 2012

When NC State and Connecticut meet on Saturday, the Wolfpack will be looking to cover the spread as a road favorite for the first time since 2002.

NC State has failed to cover in 13 straight games as a road favorite, a streak that began with a 14-9 loss to Virginia as a 6.5-point favorite in 2002. During that stretch, the Wolfpack only have one straight-up victory. They defeated Duke 28-21 in 2003, but failed to cover the 21-point spread.

NC State is currently a 3.5-point favorite.

2:01 pm – September 7, 2012

We’re exactly 24 hours away from the LVH SuperContest’s entry deadline.

1:30 pm – September 7, 2012

There’s a trend floating around that sounds much better than it actually is: A Big Ten school hasn’t won on the road against a Pac-12 school since 2007. By itself, it would seem as if this trend was something special.

But in reality, there have only been six meetings between the conferences where the Pac-12 team played host. Overall, Pac-12 teams are 5-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS over the last five years. The only loss occurred when Ohio State defeated Washington 33-14 as a 3-point favorite in 2007.

On Saturday, Oregon State hosts Wisconsin as a 7-point underdog.

1:00 pm – September 7, 2012

Our vote for toughest opening schedule among contending teams in the NFL has to go to the Denver Broncos. Good grief. Has anyone taken an in-depth look at this?

In Peyton Manning’s first season with the franchise, he’ll have to make road trips to Atlanta, New England and San Diego in the first six weeks. Then there’s home games against Pittsburgh and Houston. The only real “easy” matchup is at home against Oakland, but the Raiders have actually taken three of the past four meetings.

There’s three nationally televised night games, two of which are on the road. Here are Denver’s first six games before the bye week.

Then, after the bye, the Broncos get New Orleans at home on Sunday Night Football. Ouch.

12:15 pm – September 7, 2012

ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio just went on the radio with Colin Cowherd and started talking about his sleeper picks for Week 1 in the NFL: The Washington Redskins (+7 at New Orleans) and Indianapolis Colts (+10 at Chicago).

His reasoning? No big shocker there. Paolantonio loves Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck.

RG3′s speed on the turf in the Superdome will be the difference against a weak Saints defense, he said, and Luck is one of the most impressive rookies he can remember in 33 years of covering the NFL.

Paolantonio also thinks Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will give Jay Cutler fits rushing the passer out of the Colts’ new 3-4 scheme. “Cutler will have the whiney face by the second quarter,” he said.

If you’re curious, Cowherd made his “Blazing Five” selections a little earlier. His picks:

Eagles -9.5 at Browns
Saints -7 vs. Redskins
49ers +5 at Packers
Steelers +1.5 at Broncos
Jets -3 vs. Bills

11:30 am – September 7, 2012

Here’s the ESPN UNite sports betting segment from last night. The best part is the random tweets we sent to @WagerMinds and @JayJarrahi, among others.

11:00 am – September 7, 2012

Earlier this week, Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggart referred to his team being a 40-point underdog as “a bunch of bologna.” Now, another Hilltoppers player is joining in the fun.

“I’ll tell you what, we’re gonna freaking win this game,” linebacker T.J. Smith said. “Truly, we got a great defense, great linebackers … so watch this game, we’re gonna win.”

A 1-dollar bet on Western Kentucky would yield a return of 215 dollars.

10:15 am – September 7, 2012

BTB got plenty of on-air time last night on ESPN UNite, a new late-night sports talk show. We provided some stats & research to the staff, who were great to deal with and extremely kind to us. Overall, it was a lot of fun.

The segment featured Right Angle Sports handicapper Craig-RAS. We’ll try to upload the segment later this morning.

* * *

10:00 am – September 7, 2012

LSU left tackle Chris Faulk is likely out for the season after suffering a major knee injury in Wednesday’s practice. Compared to the loss of Tyrann Mathieu, Faulk’s absence might not seem all that significant.

However, like Mathieu, Faulk is arguably the best in the conference at his position.

9:09 am – September 7, 2012

Why is seventh-ranked Georgia only favored by two points on the road at unranked Missouri? A few BTB Forum members are attempting to reveal why.

The line has hovered under a field goal since its release on Sunday despite 80 percent of the public currently backing the Bulldogs. It’s the Tigers’ first conference game as a member of the SEC, of course, and they’re coming off a 62-10 pasting of Southeastern Louisiana in their opener.

But how much does that really mean? As thekbutler pointed out, “Last week Missouri scored 62 points, but 28 of those came from defense and special teams. James Franklin was only 12 of 31 for 131 yards and a touchdown. It definitely rained quite a bit, and they racked up the yards on offense, but there’s a big difference between SE Louisiana and Georgia.”

5:00 pm – September 6, 2012

Regulations for sports betting in New Jersey could be adopted by Oct. 1, which would allow casinos and racetracks to begin applying for a sports betting license.

However, the outcome still depends on the decision of a judge in the ongoing lawsuit between the professional sports leagues and the state of New Jersey. Even so, Dennis Drazin, operator of Monmouth Park, says his racetrack will offer free plays as early as Nov. 1. Instead of cash, the patrons would receive vouchers and discounts.

4:00 pm – September 6, 2012

Both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh open Big East play tonight with the Bearcats currently listed as a 6-point favorite. BTB Forum members are currently discussing the matchup and providing their thoughts.

The Panthers, who went 6-1 ATS against conference opponents last season, have lost three of the last four meetings against the Bearcats by a total of 11 points.

3:15 pm – September 6, 2012

Phil Steele’s four bold predictions for Week 2 in college football:

1. Florida spoils Texas A&M’s SEC debut —The Gators are a pick ‘em.
2. Mississippi State will beat Auburn — The Bulldogs are 3-point favorites.
3. Could see more FCS over FBS upsets.
4. Oklahoma and Stanford will be just fine.

(all odds via BetOnline)

2:30 pm – September 6, 2012

The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in an unfamiliar position as they’re fighting for one of two NL Wild Card spots. The Pirates are currently third in the race, 1.5 games behind the Braves and Cardinals.

Though Pittsburgh hasn’t advanced to the playoffs in 19 years (1992), the organization is happy to be in a position of mailing out letters to season ticket holders. The topic of discussion? How to purchase tickets for the 2012 postseason.

The Pirates were +173 to make the playoffs on Aug. 27.

1:45 pm – September 6, 2012

LVH just uploaded its 40-minute sports media and SuperContest panel discussion from SuperContest Weekend to YouTube.

The panel, moderated by Dave Tuley from View From Vegas, features ESPN’s Chad Millman, two-time SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik and Brady Kannon, member of last year’s contest winning team, Sans Souci (who won 72 percent of their picks). The group discusses the impact that media has had on the growth and popularity of the contest, as well as strategies for multiple and group entries.

1:00 pm – September 6, 2012

For those getting into live betting on football, Prediction Machine has released a free app for iPhone, iPad and iPod users. It’s called the Live ScoreCaster, and it will attempt to “integrate in-game, play-by-play information and concurrently simulate the game 50,000 times.”

From their release:

PredictionMachine.com’s Live ScoreCaster App is the first of its kind in-game simulation technology that instantaneously updates the predicted final score and win percentage for each team following each and every play on the field. Find out just how important a missed third-down conversion can be, or what a field goal early in a game means to the final score.

Could be useful when making in-game bets on either college football or the NFL. Only a select group of games will be available for free each week. For updates on other games, an in-app purchase is required.

12:30 pm – September 6, 2012

Oregon, which hosts Fresno State as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday, is 26-1 against unranked opponents under Chip Kelly, including 16-9-1 against the spread. The Ducks’ only loss during that time came in a 51-42 defeat to Stanford as a seven-point favorite in 2009.

Kelly’s year-by-year ATS record against unranked opponents:

2009 – 4-3
2010 – 6-2-1
2011 – 6-3
2012 – 0-1

11:45 am – September 6, 2012

The NFL has released its TV coverage map for Week 1 games.

Odds are, you’ll be watching the Packers-49ers game late Sunday, unless you live in the Northwest, the Southeast or Arizona.

11:14 am – September 6, 2012

Floyd Mayweather extended his “perfect” sports betting record with a 200,000-dollar bet on Dallas’ second-half line against the Giants Wednesday night. Mayweather, known for touting only his winning tickets on Twitter, posted this gem yesterday.

“This is real,” Mayweather tweeted. “Not a rumor like Michigan.”

The Cowboys, catching 1.5 points, covered the spread fairly easily and outscored the Giants 17-14 in the second half.

10:40 am – September 6, 2012

Since 2004, when NBC started featuring the defending Super Bowl champions in the season opener, those defending champs went a perfect 8-0 and also posted a 6-1-1 against the spread mark, winning by an average of 10 points.

That streak came to an end Wednesday night.

The Giants lost 24-17 to the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites.

10:00 am – September 6, 2012

Texas State, fresh off its upset victory over Houston as a 36.5-point underdog, will again be tested in its first season as a member of the FBS. The Bobcats will host Texas Tech Saturday as 18-point underdogs.

With its victory over the Cougars, Texas State received plenty of national attention, including from CSN Bay Area writer Ray Ratto, who ranked the Bobcats No. 16 in the country for his Week 2 poll. According to Deadspin, Texas State was left off the ballot by each of the other 59 polled writers.

Ratto, however, isn’t the only one taking notice. Red Raiders head coach Tommy Tuberville was quite impressed with the way the Bobcats entered the FBS.

“Texas State has done it right,” Tuberville told reporters. “They put money into it. They’ve hired a coaching staff, and they’ve hired a coach that’s been there, done that. They’re not a wannabe. They’re putting their money where their mouth is, and we’re walking into a tough situation.”

8:32 pm – September 5, 2012

The Twitter results are in: ”Cowboys or Giants -3.5?”

Giants: 52
Cowboys: 33

* * *

One of you even went tout and provided a 5-star selection on the Giants -3.5.

5:46 pm – September 5, 2012

5Dimes sportsbook released point spreads for 26 FBS-vs.-FCS matchups Tuesday afternoon.

They’re listed below, and no, Florida State-Savannah State is not a typo.

* * *

101 New Hampshire
102 Minnesota U -7½

103 Southern Illinois
104 Miami Ohio -17

105 Maine
106 Boston College -18½

107 Austin Peay
108 Virginia Tech -48

109 North Dakota State
110 Colorado State pk

111 Southern Utah
112 California -28

113 Weber State
114 BYU -35½

115 CS Sacramento
116 Colorado -19

117 Missouri State
118 Louisville -26½

119 Eastern Washington
120 Washington State -7½

121 Howard
122 Rutgers -45

123 Savannah State
124 Florida State -64½

125 Morgan State
126 Buffalo U -30

127 Western Carolina
128 Marshall -29

129 Nicholls State
130 South Alabama -17

131 Presbyterian
132 Georgia Tech -38½

133 Texas Southern
134 North Texas -38

135 Eastern Illinois
136 Western Michigan -24

137 Tennessee-Martin
138 Northern Illinois -26

139 Florida A&M
140 Oklahoma -51

141 Georgia State
142 Tennessee U -48½

143 Illinois State
144 Eastern Michigan -1

145 Stephen F. Austin
146 SMU -15½

147 Grambling
148 TCU -53

149 UC Davis
150 San Jose State -17

151 Northern Arizona
152 UNLV -7

5:31 pm – September 5, 2012

Most of us play in NFL pick ‘em or Survivor contests, but ESPN’s Bill Simmons offered details on a different kind of pool today, one that we thought was interesting enough to pass along.

Here’s how it works:

Find nine friends, agree on an entry fee and prize money, then come up with a draft order from 1-10.
From there, you use the following “drafting system” to pick teams.
Team 1 — 1st pick, 20th pick, 26th pick
Team 2 — 2, 16, 29
Team 3 — 3, 13, 30
Team 4 — 4, 18, 25
Team 5 — 5, 15, 27
Team 6 — 6, 19, 22
Team 7 — 7, 11, 28
Team 8 — 8, 17, 21
Team 9 — 9, 14, 23
Team 10 — 10, 12, 24
Everyone picks three teams. The highest total number of victories for those three teams wins the pool.

4:49 pm – September 5, 2012

National Football Post columnist Joe Fortenbaugh recently analyzed how first-year NFL coaches perform against the spread in their first game. You can read the full analysis here, but the nut graph is below:

Six NFL teams will enter this weekend’s slate of games with a new head coach at the controls. Over the past ten years, this situation has taken place 60 times around the league. So why not take a closer look at each of those 60 games to see if we can find ourselves an edge?
For starters, new head coaches in Week 1 have gone 28-32 (.466) straight-up and 31-28-1 (.525) ATS since 2002.

As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be much of an advantage either way.

4:24 pm – September 5, 2012

Pittsburgh head coach Paul Chryst hasn’t said what he’ll do with six suspended players, but he expects to arrive at a decision today before the team’s flight leaves for Cincinnati.

The Panthers suffered a stunning 31-17 loss to FCS Youngstown State in their season opener. The Penguins focused their attention on stopping Ray Graham and were effective, limiting the senior running back to just 71 yards on 14 carries (he also lost a fumble).

Pitt is a 4-point underdog against the Bearcats.

3:42 pm – September 5, 2012

All the talk about the SEC’s new teams (Missouri and Texas A&M) not being able to measure up seems to have been a bit premature.

Both schools make their SEC debuts this weekend with games against Georgia and Florida, respectively. The Tigers are currently 2-point home underdogs against the Bulldogs, while the Aggies are 1.5-point home favorites against the Gators.

Georgia is believed to be a national championship contender, while Florida is a team that many sharp bettors liked in the offseason. And yet, both games are considered to be virtual coin flips? Interesting.

3:10 pm – September 5, 2012

BTB Forum members are sharing their thoughts on which large college football underdogs they think have the best chance to win outright this weekend.

Some of the teams mentioned so far:

Duke +14 at Stanford
Miami +7 at Kansas State
Arizona +10.5 vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon State +7.5 vs. Wisconsin

2:48 pm – September 5, 2012

ESPN.com released its NFL power rankings today. We’ve listed them below with each team’s futures odds. As you can see, the best value appears to be on the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

The Giants, ranked third, are currently 20-to-1 at most offshore books.

* * *

1. Packers (+575)
2. Patriots (+575)
3. Giants (+2050)
4. 49ers (+1300)
5. Texans (+1000)
6. Ravens (+1600)
7. Eagles (+1250)
8. Steelers (+1500)
9. Bears (+2900)
10. Falcons (+2700)
11. Saints (+1600)
12. Lions (+2800)
13. Broncos (+1750)
14. Cowboys (+2450)
15. Chargers (+3700)
16. Bengals (+6000)
17. Chiefs (+5800)
18. Titans (+9500)
19. Bills (+7000)
20. Seahawks (+5000)
21. Jets (+5000)
22. Panthers (+5500)
23. Cardinals (+12500)
24. Redskins (+7000)
25. Buccaneers (+10000)
26. Raiders (+9000)
27. Dolphins (+12500)
28. Rams (+12000)
29. Jaguars (+30000)
30. Vikings (+33500)
31. Browns (+33500)
32. Colts (+17500)

2:29 pm – September 5, 2012

Planning to make a few last-minute futures bets on NFL teams? Below is a look at the hold percentages at various sportsbooks both offshore and in Las Vegas.

As you can see, there’s plenty of Vegas books that belong on the “avoid” list.

* * *

LAS VEGAS

LVH: 26.18%
Wynn: 28.29%
William Hill: 30.11%
South Point: 31.32%
Golden Nugget: 35.60%
Caesars: 39.08%
Stations: 39.80%
MGM: 41.76%
Cantor: 44.89%
Stratosphere: 50.51%
Orleans: 51.78%
Treasure Island: 62.59%

OFFSHORE

5Dimes: 11.90%
Pinnacle: 16.84%
Bovada: 23.36%
BetOnline: 25.68%
YouWager: 27.80%
Sportsbook: 29.73%
Bookmaker: 39.66%

2:25 pm – September 5, 2012

Marshawn Lynch’s availability remains in question for Seattle’s Week 1 game against Arizona. Oddly enough, the DUI that he received earlier this year probably won’t be the cause of his absence.

According to Danny O’Neil of the Seattle Times, the league generally tries to inform teams of suspensions on Monday or Tuesday. Both days have passed, but Lynch’s health (back spasms) still might keep him out. Lynch has missed the last two weeks of practice because of the spasms.

The Seahawks are currently 2.5-point favorites.

1:51 pm – September 5, 2012

William Hill has announced its in-play wagering schedule for this week’s football games.

* * *

Courtesy of @WilliamHillUS:

WEDNESDAY, September 5th
NFL – Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants – 5:30 p.m. PT, NBC

THURSDAY, September 6th
COLLEGE – Pittsburgh (0-1) at Cincinnati (0-0) – 5 p.m. PT, ESPN

FRIDAY, September 7th
COLLEGE – Utah (1-0) at Utah State (1-0) – 5 p.m. PT, ESPN2

SATURDAY, September 8th
COLLEGE – No. 24 Florida (1-0) at Texas A&M (0-0) – 12:30 p.m. PT, ESPN
COLLEGE – No. 16 Nebraska (1-0) at UCLA (1-0) – 4:30 p.m. PT, FOX
COLLEGE – No. 7 Georgia (1-0) at Missouri (1-0) – 4:45 p.m. PT, ESPN2

SUNDAY, September 9th
NFL – New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans – 10 a.m. PT, CBS
NFL – Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – 1:25 p.m. PT, FOX
NFL – Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos – 5:20 p.m. PT, NBC

MONDAY, September 10th
NFL – Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens – 4 p.m. PT, ESPN
NFL – San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders – 7:15 p.m. PT, ESPN

1:00 pm – September 5, 2012

For those envisioning Tony Romo struggling against the Giants, Evan Silva of Pro Football Talk provided some stats that say otherwise.

It’s a little surprising to see how good Romo’s stats are, to be honest, even though the Cowboys are 1-7 against New York over that span.

12:08 pm – September 5, 2012

Dan Patrick just announced his Super Bowl picks, choosing the Houston Texans to meet the San Francisco 49ers. Never mind that we’d have a quarterback matchup of Matt Schaub vs. Alex Smith; Patrick seems to value defense way higher than offense.

That’s a fine theory. It just seems a bit dated.

We always hear that “defense wins championships,” but the Patriots, Packers, Saints, Colts and Cardinals have all either won or made the Super Bowl in the last four seasons despite having below-average defenses.

What matters more is the quarterback. The Ravens in 2001 and Buccaneers in 2003 are really the only two teams in the past two decades to win a Super Bowl without an elite QB.

11:30 am – September 5, 2012

Look out for North Carolina this year.

The Tar Heels, a team we liked, then didn’t like, then liked again—and now love—are currently 10.5-point road favorites against Wake Forest after a big line move occurred on Tuesday. Most offshores opened North Carolina -7.5.

BetOnline, the first book to release numbers (albeit at lower limits), opened the Heels -4.5.

With Larry Fedora’s up-tempo attack, North Carolina should have no trouble scoring on opponents this season. Bryn Renner is incredibly accurate, and Giovani Bernard is a great weapon in the backfield. The Heels throttled Elon 62-0 on Saturday and easily covered the 33-point spread.

Wake Forest, meanwhile, held off Liberty 20-17.

11:00 am – September 5, 2012

As if traveling to Baton Rouge, La., wasn’t going to be hard enough, Washington now has to do it without two of its top players: offensive lineman Ben Riva and co-starting running back Jessie Callier. It’s still unknown how long Riva, a sophomore, will be out after fracturing his forearm.

The Huskies will likely have three freshmen on the starting offensive line against one of the better defenses in the country. As for Callier, he’ll miss the rest of the season after tearing a ligament in his right knee.

LSU is a 23.5-point favorite. The last time these two teams met was in 2009, Steve Sarkisian’s first year at Washington. The Huskies lost 31-23 but covered the 17.5-point spread.

10:30 am – September 5, 2012

Caleb TerBush, who missed Purdue’s first game because of suspension, will start for the Boilermakers against Notre Dame on Saturday. He’ll replace Robert Marve, despite his career day in the opener. Marve completed 30-of-38 passes for a career-high 295 yards and three touchdowns.

Head coach Danny Hope addressed the media on Tuesday, suggesting that the difference between the two quarterbacks is TerBush’s game management, which is why he will start against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is currently a 14.5-point favorite.

10:00 am – September 5, 2012

For the 2012 NFL season, we’ve partnered with YouWager to provide a free ATS pick ‘em tournament, where you’ll have a chance to win the following prizes:

$ 1,000 = winner of the regular season
$ 500 = winner of the 1st half season
$ 250 = winner of the 1st 4 weeks

The contest will require you to make three (3) NFL selections weekly against the spread. It will be sides ONLY. You can make zero picks, one pick, two picks or three picks. At the end of the regular season, the top 3 spots will be paid.

View this video for sign-up instructions. You do NOT need to be a YouWager member. Also, you won’t be required to provide personal details or deposit money. The sign-up process is quick and easy and shouldn’t take more than a few minutes.

You must click THIS LINK to sign up. Or this one. Or this one.

Any questions? Send an email to beyondthebets@gmail.com.

11:46 pm – September 4, 2012

The LVH posted lines for its NFL Supercontest, which begins this week.

* * *

WEDNESDAY
Giants* vs. Cowboys +3.5

SUNDAY
Bears* vs. Colts +9½
Eagles vs. Browns* +8½
Jets* vs. Bills +2½
Saints* vs. Redskins +7
Patriots vs. Titans* +5½
Vikings* vs. Jaguars +3½
Texans* vs. Dolphins +13
Lions* vs. Rams +7
Falcons vs. Chiefs* +2½
Packers* vs. 49ers +5
Panthers vs. Bucs* +2½
Seahawks vs. Cardinals* +2½
Broncos* vs. Steelers +1½

MONDAY
Ravens* vs. Bengals +6½
Chargers vs. Raiders* PK

7:59 pm – September 4, 2012

Georgia is all the way down to a 1.5-point favorite in its SEC opener at Missouri, the Tigers’ debut game as a member of the SEC. The seventh-ranked Bulldogs opened as 3.5-point favorites at most books, but the bigger money seems to be coming in on unranked Mizzou.

Georgia was unimpressive in a 45-23 win over Buffalo last week, while the Tigers manhandled Southeastern Louisiana 62-10. (Our projected spread was Georgia -5.)

7:19 pm – September 4, 2012

Biggest Week 2 college football line moves so far (using CRIS openers):

Bowling Green -16 vs. Idaho (opened -12)
Louisiana Tech -3.5 at Houston (opened HOU -2.5)
Arkansas State -23 vs. Memphis (opened -19.5)
NC State -6 at UConn (opened -1)

5:18 pm – September 4, 2012

Urban Meyer is hopeful that his team will come out strong against UCF and avoid another slow start like Ohio State experienced in the opener against Miami (Ohio). The Buckeyes trailed 3-0 late in the first quarter before pulling away for a 56-10 victory.

“A whole different animal is coming here this week,” Meyer said of UCF, which defeated Akron 56-14 on Thursday.

Meyer shouldn’t be too worried. With last week’s win, he improved to 43-4 straight up and 35-7 (83.3%) ATS against non-conference opponents. The Buckeyes are currently 17.5-point favorites in their weekend matchup against the Knights.

5:03 pm – September 4, 2012

AccuScore took some heat recently when its NFL projections were released in a recent edition of ESPN The Magazine. The company projected, among other things, that the Green Bay Packers would finish 16-0 and that the St. Louis Rams would go winless. Or at least that’s the way ESPN interpreted the data when they published it in the Mag.

However, AccuScore says it actually projects the Packers to go 12-4 and the Rams 4-12. The predictions all appeared incorrectly.

From AccuScore:

“We provided our projected scores for each and every game of the NFL season. ESPN then took whichever team averaged more points and took that as a win, loss, or tie. … Even though Green Bay is favored in each and every game, that does not guarantee victory in every game.
One of the best ways to illustrate this discrepancy is a weather forecast. If the weatherman told you there was a 47 percent chance of rain for the next 20 days you would expect it to rain eight to 10 days, maybe even 11. You would not expect every day to be free of rain just because no rain is more “likely.” That is exactly what the difference is between our published projections in ESPN the Magazine and our actual NFL projections.”

4:20 pm – September 4, 2012

Nevada or Las Vegas-based readers hoping to sign up for William Hill’s pro and college football contests must do so by the end of the week. The college football contest, which requires you to make seven weekly picks from predetermined games, is reasonably priced ($ 100) with good prizes.

From William Hill:

There’s still time to register for the $ 100,000 College Pick ‘em, as the contest gets underway with this Saturday’s games. The contest involves picking seven games each week against the point spread from a list of 20 to 30 designated games. Entries are 0 each.

The college contest features $ 8,000 in weekly cash prizes for 10 weeks and a $ 10,000 season Grand Prize. The entry deadline to be eligible for season prizes is Saturday, as long as seven eligible games remain.

“With $ 600,000 in weekly and season-long prizes, there’s lots of value in signing up for our pro and college contests before the weekend,” said Dan Shapiro, marketing director at William Hill US. “In addition, with more than 150 sports books and kiosks to submit weekly picks, you won’t find a more convenient, easy-to-play football contest in Nevada.”

4:17 pm – September 4, 2012

Tully Corcoran, a Houston-based columnist at Fox Sports Southwest, reports that a man placed a $ 3,000 bet on Texas State to beat Houston outright. The payout: $ 105,000.

Sadly, the bettor could have earned a return of more than 100-to-1 had he placed his wager at 5Dimes. The Cougars were 36-point favorites at most books, and the upset is already considered one of the biggest in college football history.

This week, Texas State is a 17.5-point underdog against Texas Tech.

3:51 pm – September 4, 2012

For those that took Oregon as a heavy favorite against Arkansas State, the outcome looked promising early on, even if the spread was more than five touchdowns. The Ducks took a 50-10 lead into halftime, meaning that all they had to do was lose the second half by two points or less in order to cover the spread.

Unfortunately, Chip Kelly decided to put in the reserves in the third quarter, rather than wait until later in the game or fourth quarter, like in years past. This approach, one that Kelly seems set on sticking with, could result in plenty of failed covers, despite large first-half leads. At least in non-conference play.

His main objective? Avoiding injury. “It’s that fine line of making sure we’re getting better and starting to grow,” Kelly told reporters. “And you don’t want to get guys hurt.”

Something to keep in mind as Oregon takes on Fresno State as a 34.5-point favorite this weekend.

2:15 pm – September 4, 2012

Brandon Jenkins, one of Florida State’s star defensive ends, is out for the season after injuring his left foot in the season opener against Murray State. Jenkins has led the Seminoles in sacks each of the last two seasons.

Florida State’s next game is at home against Savannah State on Saturday, Sept. 8, where the Seminoles are projected 70-point favorites. (No, seriously.) The injury might affect Florida State’s long-term chances, but it is still a heavy favorite to win the ACC Atlantic Division.

1:17 pm – September 4, 2012

The latest AP top 25 poll was released this afternoon, and Alabama is the new No. 1 team in the country. The Tide (45 first-place votes) throttled Michigan 41-14 on Saturday and are listed ahead of USC (11), LSU (4), Oregon and Oklahoma.

The Wolverines dropped out of the top 10 and are currently No. 19 overall.

12:20 pm – September 4, 2012

On Monday, Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskel the starting quarterback for Florida’s game against Texas A&M, telling reporters that “it’s good to move forward with naming one guy and go with it.”

Muschamp later added that Driskel’s mobility would give the Gators an advantage on offense. Driskel gets the nod over Jacoby Brissett, who started the season opener against Bowling Green and completed 3-of-5 passes for 31 yards. Texas A&M is a 1.5-point favorite at most offshore books.

11:18 am – September 4, 2012

This morning on ESPN’s ‘The Herd’, Colin Cowherd mentioned that he still has Wisconsin as the ninth best team in the country. “I challenge you to find two losses on that schedule,” he said.

Challenge accepted.

On the road against Nebraska (Sept. 29) and at home against Ohio State (Nov. 17). The Badgers are projected 4-point underdogs against the Huskers and 4-point favorites against the Buckeyes. (Also: Wisconsin is just a 7.5-point road favorite at Oregon State this week.)

10:19 am – September 4, 2012

Steve Spurrier still isn’t sure if Connor Shaw will start for South Carolina in Saturday’s home opener against East Carolina. Shaw, a junior quarterback, injured his throwing shoulder in the Gamecocks’ season-opening 17-13 win at Vanderbilt.

“Connor could be ready to play,” Spurrier said. “If he doesn’t toss around Thursday, he won’t play.” As of right now, Shaw isn’t scheduled to return to practice until at least Wednesday.

South Carolina is a 21.5-point favorite, but if Shaw doesn’t play—and Dylan Thompson does—the line might move slightly in favor of East Carolina. Thompson failed to connect on any of his three attempts against the Commodores.

10:00 am – September 4, 2012

Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggart isn’t concerned about being a 39-point underdog against Alabama later this week. In fact, he doesn’t think point spreads are accurate when it comes to predicting game outcomes, telling reporters that the spread was “a bunch of bologna.”

He speaks from experience. Taggart was a running backs coach with Stanford when the Cardinal defeated USC 24-23 in 2007 as 41-point underdogs. However, Nick Saban doesn’t lose very often as a favorite. Since arriving at Alabama in 2007, the Tide are 50-8 straight up and 32-22 ATS. They are also 5-4 ATS under Saban when favored by at least 30 points.

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