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Best and Worst ATS Bets, Part II: In college hoops, value can be found in unlikely places

January 31, 2012

BTB Note: All of the ATS records used in this article were taken from BTB’s college hoops ATS database.

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With more than 340 teams in Division I college hoops, there’s value to be had in places you haven’t even looked. Some teams, like Manhattan, are racking up insanely good ATS numbers in the tiny MAAC conference. Others, like Oregon State, are doing the same in the Pacific Northwest in games that aren’t even televised.

Of course, there are plenty of teams that are struggling on a nightly basis, too.

Here is Part II of the best and worst ATS teams for bettors so far in 2011-12. You can view Part I by clicking here.

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THE BEST

MANHATTAN (16-7 SU, 16-5 ATS)
The Jaspers are tied atop the MAAC standings with a 9-2 record and have won seven straight since a 61-60 loss to Loyola-Maryland. Manhattan has covered the spread in nine of its 11 conference games. When the Jaspers get hot, they’re a great team to follow. It’s been more than a year since Manhattan failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games, and this season, the Jaspers have gone on ATS streaks of three, five and six games. As an added bonus, Manhattan has been somewhat of a road warrior and has covered the spread in 11 of 13 games away from home.

OHIO STATE (19-3 SU, 12-5 ATS)
The third-ranked Buckeyes have flown under the radar from an ATS standpoint. Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in the Big Ten, which includes a 5-0 mark at home, and has been routing its competition in conference play. The only two times the Buckeyes failed to cover were as an 8.5-point favorite against Illinois and as a 5-point favorite against Indiana. Aside from those games, Ohio State has been been favored by more than 10 points in every Big Ten game and has covered the spread by an average of 10 points.

OREGON STATE (14-7 SU, 11-6 ATS)
Oregon State covered the spread in seven of its first eight games before failing to do so in five of six. However, the Beavers are back on track and are riding a three-game ATS win streak after covering as a 1-point underdog against Oregon. It should come as no surprise that Oregon State is 12-5 for the over, including an 8-3 mark at home. The Beavers have the nation’s fourth-best scoring offense and rank among the best in field-goal percentage and assists.

THE WORST

BUTLER (12-11 SU, 4-14-2 ATS)
What happened to the Bulldogs? Butler has been the runner up in back-to-back NCAA tournaments and was expected to at least compete for the Horizon’s regular season championship. However, the Bulldogs are tied for fifth in the standings with a 6-5 record and have left public backers with an empty wallet. Butler is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games, including two outright losses as a favorite.

GEORGE WASHINGTON (8-13 SU, 5-14 ATS)
The Colonials went more than a month without a cover, a stretch that began with an 11-point loss to Kansas State and ended with a 22-point loss to Saint Louis. George Washington has lost six games outright as a favorite, which raises the question: Why are the Colonials ever favored? Only one of their final nine games is against a team without a winning record — Charlotte, which is currently 10-10 — and four are against teams projected to be in the NCAA tournament.

SANTA CLARA (8-13 SU, 5-13 ATS)
Two types of people bet on a team like Santa Clara: Alumni and those that don’t care about money. The Broncos have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games and have lost outright as a one, three and 10-point favorite during the stretch. Since starting the season 8-4, Santa Clara has lost nine straight games, including eight straight in conference play. As it stands now, the Broncos are the only winless team in the West Coast.

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