Mail
PrintHow high is too high?
From 2008 through 2011, NFL Week 3 preseason totals remained fairly constant from year to year. The average total was roughly 38 points, with 85 percent of over/unders listed in the mid-to-upper 30s.
This year, there isn’t a single Week 3 game currently in the 30s. All 14 games have a total of 40.5 or higher, and six games are at 42 or more, including the Packers-Bengals (45) matchup.
After the first two weeks of preseason yielded more overs than unders (by an 18-13 margin), a slight oddsmaker adjustment was expected. But it’s clear that the opening totals weren’t nearly as high as they needed to be, as every game on the Week 3 slate moved at least a full point toward the over.
Gee, wonder why …
The average total in Week 3 games is currently 42.1. That’s nearly five points higher than last year and a full four points higher than what we’re used to seeing.
Two games opened in the upper 30s in Las Vegas (Falcons-Dolphins and Jets-Panthers), and as many as four games opened shy of 40 offshore.
Those numbers, as you might expect, didn’t last long.
Worth noting: The over is 11-9 the last five years on totals of 40 or more. That includes Monday night’s Eagles-Patriots game, which combined for 44 points and cleared the total by the end of the third quarter.
* * *
Preseason Week 3 totals, since 2008
| YEAR | AVG. TOTAL | GAMES IN 30s | Games 42+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 42.1 | 0 | 6 |
| 2011 | 37.4 | 13 | 2 |
| 2010 | 39.2 | 11 | 2 |
| 2009 | 38.7 | 11 | 2 |
| 2008 | 37.6 | 12 | 2 |
