When the over/under for next week’s Baylor-West Virginia game comes out tomorrow, there’s a strong chance the number will be in the 80s.
That number will seem very, very high, and a lot of folks will probably try to say that the value is on the under.
But will it be?
The over/under in Baylor football games is getting absurd.
During the Bears’ 47-42 win at Louisiana Monroe—which closed with a total of 70—on Friday night, we tweeted after a second-quarter touchdown that the new, in-game over/under was now 81.5.
The response from most people? “No way I’d touch the under.”
Sure enough, the two teams combined for 89 points, which is the 10th time in Baylor’s last 16 games that they’ve reached at least 80 points.
The Bears’ over/under record in those games since the beginning of last season is now 12-1-1 (two games didn’t have a total).
Baylor’s offense is quick-striking and rarely takes more than a couple minutes to score (they entered last night’s game ranked second-to-last nationally in time of possession), which means the defense is always winded and struggles to stop anybody. It’s the perfect recipe for overs, and it appears oddsmakers can’t set these numbers high enough.
Until they do, the value will never lie in the under.
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Final fact: There have been five college football games with totals in the 80s since 2007 (two of them involving Baylor), and four of them have gone ‘over.’