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PrintThere’s not a ton of drama within the divisions as we close the 2012 NFL regular season (save for the NFC East’s murky playoff picture), so we’re left dissecting individual accomplishments like Adrian Peterson’s and Calvin Johnson’s odds of breaking NFL records.
Luckily for us, BetOnline sportsbook has entered the mix.
ADRIAN PETERSON
The Vikings’ dynamic back enters the last couple weeks with 1,812 rushing yards, needing a little less than 300 over the final two games to break Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105.
Per the LA Times, “Peterson ran for just 83.2 yards a game the first six weeks of the season (while recovering from offseason knee surgery) but has averaged 164.1 yards per outing since.” He needs 147 yards per game over the final two weeks against the NFL’s fifth-ranked (Texans) and 14th-ranked (Packers) rush defenses.
The odds from BetOnline:
Evening out the juice on both sides leaves us with a +195/-195 bet, meaning the implied odds of Peterson breaking Dickerson’s record are 33.9 percent. It’s probably worth pointing out that The Greek is currently offering this same bet with +145/-175 odds, so you’re getting good value by taking “Yes” at BetOnline.
ESPN Stats & Info reveals that AP is actually 20 yards ahead of where Dickerson was through 14 games, and 77 percent of respondents on a recent poll say that Peterson will in fact break the record.
We’d put the odds closer to 50-50.
Pick: Yes.
CALVIN JOHNSON
Barring injury, Megatron’s situation is close to a sure thing.
The Lions’ wideout has seven straight games with at least 118 yards to get to 1,667 this season, leaving him only 181 shy of Jerry Rice’s record 1,848 set in 1995. To break it, Johnson needs to average a mere 91 yards over the final two games, played against the NFL’s 17th-ranked (Falcons) and sixth-ranked (Bears) pass defenses.
The odds from BetOnline:
Evening this out to a -425/+425 bet on both sides leaves us with an 81 percent chance that Calvin does it, which seems about right.
ESPN Stats & Info again tells us that Johnson is a whopping 261 yards ahead of Rice’s pace. He’s had only three games with less than 91 yards this season, and they all occurred in the first half of the year.
Forget the record. Could Calvin Johnson possibly get to 2,000 receiving yards?
Pick: Yes. (But there’s no value betting it.)
