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PrintCantor Gaming released point spreads for all 2012 NFL games (excluding Week 17) on Wednesday, and we’ve already projected what divisional standings might look like if the favorites won every game.
The flaws in that reasoning are quite obvious, as favorites don’t win every game and not all of them are created equally. So, a better way to arrive at potential win/loss records is to use SBR’s handy spread-to-money-line converter and calculate the chances of each team winning their respective games.
As an example, a 14-point favorite has a 92-percent (0.92) chance of winning outright. A 3-point favorite, on the other hand, has just a 59-percent chance. A 7-point favorite is at 75 percent. And so on.
By using these percentages—and by tweaking the outputs to take into account factors such as public perception, etc.—we can come up with rough win totals for every NFL team. The Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots, for instance, are favored in every game they play. But it’s highly unlikely they’ll finish 16-0.
So, here’s your 2012 NFL win totals based on the point spreads. (I estimated my own point spreads for Week 17.)
* * *
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Projected wins: 6.35
Over 6.5 (even)
Under 6.5 (-130)
ATLANTA FALCONS
Projected wins: 8.42
Over 8.5 (-150)
Under 8.5 (+120)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Projected wins: 9.52
Over 10.5 (+110)
Under 10.5 (-140)
BUFFALO BILLS
Projected wins: 7.38
Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Projected wins: 7.46
Over 8 (-130)
Under 8 (even)
CHICAGO BEARS
Projected wins: 8.67
Over 8.5 (-160)
Under 8.5 (+130)
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Projected wins: 7.53
Over 7.5 (-150)
Under 7.5 (+120)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Projected wins: 5.05
Over 4.5 (-115)
Under 4.5 (-115)
DALLAS COWBOYS
Projected wins: 7.39
Over 8.5 (-140)
Under 8.5 (+110)
DENVER BRONCOS
Projected wins: 8.77
Over 10 (-120)
Under 10 (-110)
DETROIT LIONS
Projected wins: 9.12
Over 9 (-130)
Under 9 (even)
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Projected wins: 12.02
Over 12 (-150)
Under 12 (+120)
HOUSTON TEXANS
Projected wins: 10.06
Over 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-120)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Projected wins: 5.57
Over 5 (even)
Under 5 (-130)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Projected wins: 5.14
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (even)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Projected wins: 7.49
Over 7.5 (-140)
Under 7.5 (+110)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Projected wins: 7.58
Over 7.5 (+120)
Under 7.5 (-150)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Projected wins: 5.80
Over 5 (-110)
Under 5 (-120)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Projected wins: 12.24
Over 12 (-145)
Under 12 (+115)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Projected wins: 9.60
Over 10.5 (-130)
Under 10.5 (even)
NEW YORK GIANTS
Projected wins: 8.92
Over 9.5 (-115)
Under 9.5 (-115)
NEW YORK JETS
Projected wins: 8.46
Over 8.5 (-140)
Under 8.5 (+110)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Projected wins: 6.76
Over 7.5 (even)
Under 7.5 (-130)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Projected wins: 10.24
Over 10 (-150)
Under 10 (+120)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Projected wins: 9.58
Over 10.5 (+110)
Under 10.5 (-140)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Projected wins: 9.04
Over 9.5 (-110)
Under 9.5 (-120)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Projected wins: 9.76
Over 10 (even)
Under 10 (-130)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Projected wins: 7.17
Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)
ST. LOUIS RAMS
Projected wins: 5.38
Over 5 (even)
Under 5 (-130)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Projected wins: 5.53
Over 5.5 (+110)
Under 5.5 (-140)
TENNESSEE TITANS
Projected wins: 6.97
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Projected wins: 6.48
Over 6 (+130)
Under 6 (-160)
